taw comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong

20 Post author: gwern 01 January 2012 09:35AM

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Comment author: Craig_Heldreth 31 December 2011 06:50:43PM 2 points [-]

Obama will win in November 2012.

P=~.9 (that is ninety percent!)

Comment author: taw 03 January 2012 04:52:10AM 4 points [-]

Intrade gives him barely above 50% chance, so you can make some money fast if you really believe your prediction.

Comment author: APMason 03 January 2012 04:57:21AM 6 points [-]

you can make some money fast if you really believe your prediction.

And it's correct.