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taelor comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong
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All predictions are for 2012.
Homestuck:
Andrew Hussie releases at least one flash lasting longer than 10 minutes: 65%
Karkat, Terezi, John, Dave, Rose and Jade will not be permanently removed from story (Being killed off but returning as a ghost/sprite/whatever doesn't count as being permanently removed; being killed off and spending eternity in a dream-bubble and having no further contribution to the story does): 80%
The hints that Betty Crocker/Her Imperious Condesencion is running post-scratch Desrse will prove to be misdirection on Hussie's part: 20%
Baseball:
The San Francisco Giants will have a winning season. 80%
The Giants will make the postseason (either as NL West Champions or as a Wildcard team): 50%
Pablo Sandoval will hit at least 25 home runs: 80%
Ryan Braun will successfully appeal his suspension: 45%
Albert Pujols will finish the season with a batting average below .300: 65%
Casually wonders how many Homestuckers on LW.
I somehow never thought to combine Homestuck wild mass guessing with prediction markets. And didn't really expect this on LW, for some reason. Holy cow.
Hm, let's try my two favorite pet theories...
In a truly magnificent Moebius double reacharound, The troll universe will turn out to have been created by the kids' session (either pre- or post- scratch): 40% (used to be higher, but now we have some asymmetries between the sessions, like The Tumor, so.)
In an even more bizarre mindscrew that echoes paradox cloning, the various kids and guardians will turn out to be the same people in both sessions (e.g. Poppop Crocker is the very same John we know, the Bro that cuts the meteor is the same one who programmed the auto-responder, etc.). That means that, at least for the Derse dreamers, each of them raised their own guardian, probably inflicting upon them whichever neurosis they got from them in the first place. 35% on this one, because it entails some heavy-duty time shenaniganry. But I still like this one best :3
And on a more light-hearted note... Human-troll sloppy makeouts to happen at any point in the story: 90%
(all these predictions are not time-bound to 2012 - apply until the end of the story, including the Epilogue)
I'm fairly convinced (65%) that Lalonde appearified the Sassacre book in such a way that it killed Jaspers, which is why she had to leave so abruptly.
I'll go 90%, now that Hussie has cleverly alluded to it by having Roxy's name for Jaspers (Frigglish) be the same as a character in Complacency of the Learned that gets crushed by a large book.
Post-Scratch!Bro will be revealed as the Hero of Mind: 65%.
Dirk Strider is the Prince of Heart. Sorry, taelor.
Well, that was bust. Heart it is.
Why Mind? Terezi ain't going anywhere; or at least, she better not. I'm thinking either Heart (poor Nepeta ;_;) or Doom.
EDIT (WARNING: CONJUNCTION FALLACY, SPOILERS AHOY): So my prevailing theory is that the pre-Scratch kids, the surviving trolls, and the post-Scratch kids all join forces and make up a 12-person group in the post-Scratch session. In the post-Scratch session, the prototyping rings of Derse and Prospit only get four charges, so it'll be much easier than the troll's session.
The four kids give us Breath, Light, Time and Space. Of the remaining trolls, this theory predicts Aradia dies a heroic death holding back Troll!Jack. That leaves Blood, Rage, Mind, and Doom.
Jane is pretty clearly Life, and Jake is Hope. That leaves Void and Heart. Rolal's dreamself wanders the Furthest Ring and is hard to keep track of, so that makes Void more likely. Di-Stri's recent pesterlog was emotionally intelligent, so I favor him to be Heart.
Of course, now I have to explain how Aradia dies to Troll!Jack, but somehow Sollux survives.
Hussie will tease various ships, but ultimately, none will be made canon: 55%.
That seems vastly underconfident and I don't even know what Homestuck is. My guess is that the "not canon" part is what drives it down. Some slight research suggests this is a correct estimation of the author's attitude.
... . .-. . -. .. - -.-- / .-. ..- .-.. . ...
Oh, a few.
All the currently "dead" characters will re-enter the story by the conclusion of Act 7: 40%.
As a side note, had I been aware of this page a week ago, I could have posted my prediction about Jane not actually being dead, and been right.
In light of the most recent update, I'm raising this to 60%.
GCat has the good sense not to be prototyped into Jane's kernelsprite before entering the medium: 70%
Tavros, somehow, ascends to God Tier: 5% (fly, pupa! flyyyyyyyyy!)
Jane becomes a catgirl: 40%
Vriska and Aradia return at an opportune moment: 70%
Andrew Hussie will blow our minds: 1 - E
The Fandom will Flip their shit: 1 - E
Where E > 0. (i don't know how to put a unicode epsilon in this post)
ETA: Okay, so maybe 100% is a mathematical impossibility. Can we settle for an epsilon-delta-esque construct instead?
1.0 is not a probability. All the protons that compose him might simultaneously decay while he's being hit with a back hole and the simulation we're on is shut down. In that case it might be as low as 90% chance of that still happening.
Confirmed
Considering that all but one of the character's named above are now about as close to being literally immortal as it's possible to get in the setting, I'm upping this to at least 85%.
Also, predicting that Terezi will get Godtiered as well (p=50%).
More Baseball:
The Giants will take the season series against the A's: 65%.
There will be a bench clearing brawl between the Giants and the Phillies: 15%.
Either the Texas Rangers or the LA Angels will win the AL West: 90%.