Baughn comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong

20 Post author: gwern 01 January 2012 09:35AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (339)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Baughn 03 January 2012 02:26:41PM *  0 points [-]

Vriska and Aradia return at an opportune moment: 70%

  • To save the day: 40%
Comment author: [deleted] 03 January 2012 04:25:59PM *  0 points [-]

Andrew Hussie will blow our minds: 1 - E

The Fandom will Flip their shit: 1 - E

Where E > 0. (i don't know how to put a unicode epsilon in this post)

ETA: Okay, so maybe 100% is a mathematical impossibility. Can we settle for an epsilon-delta-esque construct instead?

Comment author: Armok_GoB 04 January 2012 02:25:24PM 2 points [-]

1.0 is not a probability. All the protons that compose him might simultaneously decay while he's being hit with a back hole and the simulation we're on is shut down. In that case it might be as low as 90% chance of that still happening.