FiftyTwo comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong

20 Post author: gwern 01 January 2012 09:35AM

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Comment author: FiftyTwo 03 January 2012 03:11:17PM 1 point [-]

Trying to work out if there are any falsification conditions for the above...

Comment author: taelor 04 January 2012 10:56:24PM 1 point [-]

Count all the predictions that were assigned a 90% probability, and determine if the percentage that were correct is less than 90%? Repeat for all other probabilities?