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FiftyTwo comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong
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Comments (339)
Most of the predictions in this thread will turn out to have been overconfident
The above prediction will turn out to have been overconfident.
All three predictions in this post will turn out to have been overconfident.
:p
Trying to work out if there are any falsification conditions for the above...
Count all the predictions that were assigned a 90% probability, and determine if the percentage that were correct is less than 90%? Repeat for all other probabilities?