TheOtherDave comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong

20 Post author: gwern 01 January 2012 09:35AM

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Comment author: TheOtherDave 03 January 2012 03:30:29PM 0 points [-]

Ah, I see.

Just to clarify, what I'd actually meant was, given a 60% confidence of a riot with >90% (black males + females), what are your expectations about the % of females. (I worded the question atrociously, my apologies.)

But given your actual motivation for the prediction, it's kind of moot.

Comment author: CharlieSheen 06 January 2012 09:44:26AM *  0 points [-]

Just to clarify, what I'd actually meant was, given a 60% confidence of a riot with >90% (black males + females), what are your expectations about the % of females. (I worded the question atrociously, my apologies.)

About 20% to 30%.