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PlacidPlatypus comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong
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World politics:
One or more new 'revolutions' (described as such by international media) will take place. 80% - At least one of which will be in Sub-Saharan Africa: 60%
Fidel Castro will die, or has already died and it will be officially confirmed 90%.
Open hostilities will take place between Iran and another country 60%.
Vladimir Putin will become president of Russia: 95% - There will be significant rioting with civilian injuries in Russia: 70% - There will be substansive political change in Russia 5%.
UK politics
The coalition government will break up 10%. - One of the 3 major parties will change leader 50%.
Some random personal predictions as I find the exercise interesting:
I will have sexual interactions with one or more women. 95% [Here defining sexual interactions as something that would require an 18 certificate to display in a film, and women by their own self definition). - I will have an 'official' relationship 25% (defined as one where we both alter our facebook statuses to 'in a relationship'.) - I will have sexual relations with one or more men 1% (the prospect doesn't currently appeal to me, but given my observations of sexual preference variability in others I can't rule it out).
I will graduate university this summer. 90% - Assuming I graduate it will be with a grade of 2:1. 80% 1st 10% Other 10%
I will miss one or more deadlines due to ongoing depression and anxiety issues 80% (I would like to say lower, but given past results that seems unlikely from an outside view. )
I will break at at least one debating competition. 70%. (Break meaning entering semi finals or final depending on size of competition). I will win a Debating competition 20%.
I will attend the European debating championships. 80%. Assuming the preceding: I will be in the top half of speaker scores 95%. Top 100 60%. Top 50 10%. Break 25%.
Travel outisde UK 99%. (I intend to book tickets in the next week), - Travel outside EU 50% (no current plans but most of yea is unplanned and I wish to.
LW
This post will have positive Karma 90%. - Karma >5 50%. - Karma >10 10%.
At what point will you check the Karma value? The end of the year?
Yes, same as all other predictions.
Would you accept a bet on it? ...given that I will cheat like a dog? ...and probably will cheat like a dog even if you refuse?
How do dogs cheat? I'd imagine given the requirements of modelling other minds it would be badly or not at all.
Fine. I will cheat like...
Also, why not? Dogs are social animals. Does the injured alpha wolf who didn't move for two days to avoid the other wolves noticing he was weak count? Dogs may also distract you then eat your food.
My dog learned early on that luring people off the couch and then taking their seat worked pretty well as a way of getting a warm seat. But it's not clear to me I would call that cheating.
I don't ever recall any dogs cheating. However, I have seen lots of people cheating dogs; there's no better name for that "Hey look, I moved my arm really fast and now you can't see the ball anymore, therefore you should assume I threw it!" trick.
Will you accept the bet still given that I would cheat like a dog for him just out of principle? Consider that I am extremely good at this particular kind of electronic cheating.
So that's how you got all that karma.
I wish. No, I got karma from excessive participation. ;)
Did I say which side I would cheat for?
Not required. (I would cheat against declared cheaters such that they would lose the money in the bet. If you happen to also be cheating such that you lose the bet then you'll lose even more dramatically.)