orthonormal comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong

20 Post author: gwern 01 January 2012 09:35AM

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Comment author: orthonormal 04 January 2012 12:45:18AM 1 point [-]

This post will have positive Karma 90%. - Karma >5 50%. - Karma >10 10%.

My default response to a comment predicting its own karma is to downvote.

Comment author: FiftyTwo 04 January 2012 02:58:04AM 0 points [-]

Interesting, I considered whether that question would prime people to vote up, evidently not in your case.

Comment author: [deleted] 04 January 2012 12:52:01AM 0 points [-]

Even those predicting negative karma?

Comment author: orthonormal 04 January 2012 12:56:08AM 2 points [-]

Yes. It's not about making their prediction right or wrong, it's about making those comments less visible.

Comment author: FiftyTwo 04 January 2012 02:59:42AM 0 points [-]

Do you have a principled objection to discussing comment karma? It seems a fairly value neutral thing to make predictions of, I was trying to predict how much the readers of this post would consider it relevant/interesting.

Comment author: orthonormal 04 January 2012 03:08:02AM 6 points [-]

It leads to people getting too cute and meta, and drifting away from actual content. Some contexts of discussing karma are fine (like asking for an explanation of downvotes), but making predictions of the karma of the very post you're composing is like a self-referential statement: often meaningless, and trivial even when correct.