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orthonormal comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong
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World politics:
One or more new 'revolutions' (described as such by international media) will take place. 80% - At least one of which will be in Sub-Saharan Africa: 60%
Fidel Castro will die, or has already died and it will be officially confirmed 90%.
Open hostilities will take place between Iran and another country 60%.
Vladimir Putin will become president of Russia: 95% - There will be significant rioting with civilian injuries in Russia: 70% - There will be substansive political change in Russia 5%.
UK politics
The coalition government will break up 10%. - One of the 3 major parties will change leader 50%.
Some random personal predictions as I find the exercise interesting:
I will have sexual interactions with one or more women. 95% [Here defining sexual interactions as something that would require an 18 certificate to display in a film, and women by their own self definition). - I will have an 'official' relationship 25% (defined as one where we both alter our facebook statuses to 'in a relationship'.) - I will have sexual relations with one or more men 1% (the prospect doesn't currently appeal to me, but given my observations of sexual preference variability in others I can't rule it out).
I will graduate university this summer. 90% - Assuming I graduate it will be with a grade of 2:1. 80% 1st 10% Other 10%
I will miss one or more deadlines due to ongoing depression and anxiety issues 80% (I would like to say lower, but given past results that seems unlikely from an outside view. )
I will break at at least one debating competition. 70%. (Break meaning entering semi finals or final depending on size of competition). I will win a Debating competition 20%.
I will attend the European debating championships. 80%. Assuming the preceding: I will be in the top half of speaker scores 95%. Top 100 60%. Top 50 10%. Break 25%.
Travel outisde UK 99%. (I intend to book tickets in the next week), - Travel outside EU 50% (no current plans but most of yea is unplanned and I wish to.
LW
This post will have positive Karma 90%. - Karma >5 50%. - Karma >10 10%.
My default response to a comment predicting its own karma is to downvote.
Interesting, I considered whether that question would prime people to vote up, evidently not in your case.
Even those predicting negative karma?
Yes. It's not about making their prediction right or wrong, it's about making those comments less visible.
Do you have a principled objection to discussing comment karma? It seems a fairly value neutral thing to make predictions of, I was trying to predict how much the readers of this post would consider it relevant/interesting.
It leads to people getting too cute and meta, and drifting away from actual content. Some contexts of discussing karma are fine (like asking for an explanation of downvotes), but making predictions of the karma of the very post you're composing is like a self-referential statement: often meaningless, and trivial even when correct.