mfb comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong

20 Post author: gwern 01 January 2012 09:35AM

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Comment author: mfb 04 January 2012 11:38:59AM 3 points [-]

My predictions to these topics: No experiment apart from OPERA will measure a neutrino speed >c with a significance of more than 3 sigma in 2012: 85% - where the 15% are mainly related to measurement errors OPERA or others will find a significant error in OPERAs measurements in 2012: 50%

Higgs boson will be seen with a local 5 sigma significance (ATLAS+CMS alone or in combination) near ~125 GeV in 2012: 90% - the current signal is quite clear already, even without the magic 5 sigma. So I expect that new data will increase the significance. From the 10%, a large part is related to possible problems with the LHC, it includes serious analysis problems, bad luck and the simple "there is no higgs". Higgs boson will be seen with a global 5 sigma significance (ATLAS+CMS alone or in combination) near ~125 GeV in 2012: 85% - this needs a bit more data than the local significance.

No other new particles will be seen with 5 sigma significance in 2012: 75% - up to now, I did not see any hint for a new particle from both collaborations, so I think there is no 3sigma evidence for anything at the moment

The LHC will collide protons with lead at the end of 2012: 75% - it was tested in 2011, but technical problems prevented collisions

Comment author: Thomas 04 January 2012 11:48:56AM 3 points [-]

This is great. You have predictions quite opposite to mines and we will see who is more right quite clearly.

I wish there was more dueling predictions.

Comment author: mfb 24 February 2012 09:19:56PM *  0 points [-]

"OPERA or others will find a significant error in OPERAs measurements in 2012: 50%"

This already became true, even if we don't know the size (or even the direction) of the effect yet.

After hearing a talk of an ATLAS higgs researcher, an update lowered my higgs expectations a bit: ATLAS and CMS will present a signal signifiance (local and global) of 5 sigma with the data of (2011+)2012 in combination at some time in the future: 85%

With a presentation of results (and 5 sigma, from any dataset) in 2012: 70%

Comment author: mfb 01 January 2013 12:45:50PM *  2 points [-]

Let's see.

  • No superluminal neutrinos (85%) -> true
  • OPERA measurement error (50%) -> true
  • Higgs boson with local (90%) and global (85%) 5sigma significance (updated to 70% below) -> true
  • No other new particle (75%) -> true
  • Proton-lead-collisions (75%): This is an interesting prediction. The collisions took place, but in september. and LHC plans to collide more in february. As I posted my prediction, such a deviation from the plan was somewhere at "other things I don't even think about", therefore I did not care about a precise definition of "end of 2012". Open to interpretations.

From the other comment with predictions:

  • The discovery of at least one planet with less than 150% of earth's radius within the habitable zone around a main-sequence star will be presented in 2012: 75% (+"with Kepler": 70%) -> wrong
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