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Kevin comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong
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I will place in the top 5 for the Quantified Health Prize (either by myself or as part of a team), conditional on me submitting an entry that took me at least 40 hours of work: 95%
You may have just decreased your prior likelihood given that one of us may have read that and thought hmm, if it's relatively not a ton of work, maybe it's more worth giving a shot.
Just putting that out there. 95%, huh? Would you be willing to make a bet?
Also, more likely than people reading this and going on to make a submission is that people read that, think that, try giving it a shot and then give up in disgust because nutrition is not actually a science, it's just a field where scientists pretend they are doing science. The literature is somewhere between awful and useless. I think Personalized Medicine is going to be disappointed in the results of the contest because it's so hard to make conclusions as evidence backed as would seem likely before digging into the literature.
No, I'm disinclined from taking bets at 20:1 odds no matter what my confidence. However, I'd take a 1:1 bet on me (or my team) winning first prize.
I'll take that bet, conditional on your removing the "at least 40 hours" provision.
I'll take the bet because I want to encourage you to actually put in a good submission... I prefer the bet amount to be symbolic rather than substantial. I offer "the Groupon deal for dinner for two in the city of your residence", provided there is such a thing in the place where you live.
Are we on?
Sure. Let's just call it $25, since Groupon for my local area only has deals for towns 10 miles away.
I submitted what I think is a great entry, that took me around 100 hours of work + 20 hours from a partner. It's over 9000 words.
[Your bet would have been more usefully motivating if proposed before the paper was due]
Good to hear, and good luck (to the extent that luck is in fact involved...).
On reflection... you already had $5000 to aim for. So now the stakes are up by, heh, 1%.
http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5483
Yup, fulfilled the conditional. I also almost made that prediction read that I or my team will get 1st place with 70% probability but didn't want to make that signal before people submitted. So I'll make it now.
I predict that I or my team will win (1st place) for the Quantified Health Prize. (70%)
http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5493