wedrifid comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong

20 Post author: gwern 01 January 2012 09:35AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (339)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: wedrifid 05 January 2012 07:42:47PM *  0 points [-]

Options give much greater leverage. The mysteries of option pricing are not spoken of to the uninitiated, but a 5% change in a stock's price is very roughly a 100% change in the prices of options to buy or sell 5% away from the initial price.

Yes, they save you getting a loan. More important in this case is short selling. Options are still only useful if the price goes up. That gives the predictor something to do when their predictions are that the price will fall. If the actual market is sufficiently developed as to allow that kind of trade the prediction market becomes rather redundant.

Comment author: MixedNuts 05 January 2012 08:15:10PM 0 points [-]

Options are still only useful if the price goes up.

I fail to see what breaks the symmetry between put and call options.

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 07 January 2012 10:21:53PM 1 point [-]

s/up/in the direction of the option/