MartinB comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong

20 Post author: gwern 01 January 2012 09:35AM

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Comment author: MartinB 06 January 2012 11:52:15AM *  0 points [-]

my predictions: at the end of the year 2012

self (*)

  • I'll log more than 1460 work hours in my logging tool for the year:70%

  • I can accurately describe myself as a hard worker. 60%

  • I weight below 100kg (220 pound) end of year: 30%

  • I'll get the big scale project one of my teams was applying for: 20%

  • I'll severely improve in the art that shall not be named: 60%

  • I finish university:60%

  • I still am involved in my goal club: 75%

  • I will have experienced credit card fraud: 5%

  • I will still follow my current diet regime (no alcohol, reduced sugar, no cola): 90%

  • I'll start a business project from my backlog: 40%

  • I'll still use NEO and F.LUX: 98 %

  • I'll revisit and score this prediction in the first week of 2013: 95%

  • I'll rejoin Toastmasters: 70%

(*) predicting self related things is a bit weird, since I could influence it based on the amount I bet on it

LW

  • I'll gain a new super important insights: 10%

  • There are 10 or more MOR updates:97%

  • They will be really awesome:60%

world:

  • the EURO will still exist: 95%

  • there will be steps undertaken to remove the EURO: 7%

  • Greece got another bailout: 30%

  • the GRG Table E will have less than 100 cases over the whole year: 80% (this include retroactively validated entries)

  • the current 4 entries with an age over 114 will all be dead:65%

  • and for calender mystics: the number of cases born <1.1.1900 will drop below 10: 70%

  • the world will not end in 2012: 99,99999%

  • people will find new scary date in the future: 87%

  • the US or GB will take steps to increase metrification:3%

Germany:

  • the FDP (german liberal/libertarians) will be gone: 5%

  • the FDP will become unimportant:60%

  • Germany will have a new president: 70%

trueisms:

  • some major catastrophe happens in the world:95%

  • a major political scandal: 99%

  • earthquakes in Japan: 100%

  • Obama wins:60%

  • if Ron Paul wins, he will not succeed in cutting spending:80%

  • people will complain, but actually be fine:90%

  • I will have forgotten to write in some prediction I thought about during the last week:90%

Comment author: MartinB 07 January 2013 01:02:17PM *  2 points [-]

And now the scoring:

self

I'll log more than 1460 work hours in my logging tool for the year:70%

No, just 612,5 == 42% of the planned minimum.

I can accurately describe myself as a hard worker. 60%

Not quite there yet.

I weight below 100kg (220 pound) end of year: 30%

No.

I'll get the big scale project one of my teams was applying for: 20%

No.

I'll severely improve in the art that shall not be named: 60%

No.

I finish university:60%

No.

I still am involved in my goal club: 75%

Yes.

I will have experienced credit card fraud: 5%

No.

I will still follow my current diet regime (no alcohol, reduced sugar, no cola): 90%

Yes.

I'll start a business project from my backlog: 40%

No.

I'll still use NEO and F.LUX: 98 %

Yes.

I'll revisit and score this prediction in the first week of 2013: 95%

Yes.

I'll rejoin Toastmasters: 70% No.

LW I'll gain a new super important insights: 10%

Probably. Difficult to score.

There are 10 or more MOR updates:97%

Yes, but that was close.

They will be really awesome:60%

Yes.

world: the EURO will still exist: 95%

Yes

there will be steps undertaken to remove the EURO: 7%

No.

Greece got another bailout: 30%

Kind of. Hard to score.

the GRG Table E will have less than 100 cases over the whole year: 80% (this include retroactively validated entries)

Yes (61 atm)

the current 4 entries with an age over 114 will all be dead:65%

Yes.

and for calender mystics: the number of cases born <1.1.1900 will drop below 10: 70%

No (15 atm)

the world will not end in 2012: 99,99999%

Yes

people will find new scary date in the future: 87%

Hard to score, probably true.

the US or GB will take steps to increase metrification:3%

No.

Germany: the FDP (german liberal/libertarians) will be gone: 5%

No.

the FDP will become unimportant:60%

To difficult to score yet.

Germany will have a new president: 70% Yes. trueisms: some major catastrophe happens in the world:95%

Yes.

a major political scandal: 99%

Yes.

earthquakes in Japan: 100%

Yes.

Obama wins:60%

Yes.

if Ron Paul wins, he will not succeed in cutting spending:80%

Not applicable. (Also probably wrong)

people will complain, but actually be fine:90%

Yes.

I will have forgotten to write in some prediction I thought about during the last week:90%

No.

I am miscalibrated with the edgier numbers!

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