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MixedNuts comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong
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I still think you are about 5% too high on both of those predictions, but at least you aren't being stupid in arriving at your probabilities.
(By the way, if you are wrong, you've done your future self a service by writing this comment - explaining in detail your reasons is one of the few known effective tactics against hindsight bias.)
Betting time!
Well, unless your or AspiringKnitter's bid-ask spread is too wide.
A 5% difference isn't enough to bet on - I don't make bets that often so gambler's ruin becomes an issue.