Going through expiring predictions reminded me. Just as we did for 2010 and 2011, it's time for LessWrong to make its beliefs pay rent and give hostages to fortune in making predictions for events in 2012 and beyond.
Suggested topics include: Methods of Rationality updates (eg. "will there be any?"), economic benchmarks (price of gold has been an educational one for me this past year), medical advances (but be careful not to be too optimistic!), personal precommitments (signing up for cryonics?), being curmudgeonly about self-improvement, making daring predictions about the future of AGI, and so on.
As before, please be fairly specific. I intend to put most predictions on PredictionBook.com and it'd be nice if they weren't too hard to judge in the future.
(If you want advice on making good predictions, I've tried to write up a few useful heuristics I've learned. So far in the judging process, I've done pretty well this year, although I'm a little annoyed I got a Yemen prediction right but for the wrong reasons.)
DO WANT. I hope you play it for maximum melodrama.
2Anubhav
Go ahead. I do have plans to write an MoR x Nasuverse (x Haruhi?) fic, but that's far in the future, if ever. And this story is not that fic (though I picked up a few ideas from it).
How long do you intend to make it? It might be difficult to keep it funny if it goes on too long; this seems particularly vulnerable to Cerebus syndrome. (warning: TVTropes)
Although if it were to be long, we could crowdsource the research/ checking story ideas for OOCness/ checking story ideas for humour quotient/ keeping track of what the different factions are doing. (LW discussion thread, maybe?) Of course, Eliezer would be horrified at the blatant proliferation of spoilers, but this needs to be done FOR SCIENCE!! (It annoys me that most of the evidence we have about spoilers comes from laboratory studies or anecdotal evidence, even though it's possible to do large-scale real-world experiments to answer the same questions.)
Going through expiring predictions reminded me. Just as we did for 2010 and 2011, it's time for LessWrong to make its beliefs pay rent and give hostages to fortune in making predictions for events in 2012 and beyond.
Suggested topics include: Methods of Rationality updates (eg. "will there be any?"), economic benchmarks (price of gold has been an educational one for me this past year), medical advances (but be careful not to be too optimistic!), personal precommitments (signing up for cryonics?), being curmudgeonly about self-improvement, making daring predictions about the future of AGI, and so on.
As before, please be fairly specific. I intend to put most predictions on PredictionBook.com and it'd be nice if they weren't too hard to judge in the future.
(If you want advice on making good predictions, I've tried to write up a few useful heuristics I've learned. So far in the judging process, I've done pretty well this year, although I'm a little annoyed I got a Yemen prediction right but for the wrong reasons.)