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katydee comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong
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On February 13th, President Obama will be assassinated by ninjas. This will lead to a political crisis, which Sarah Palin will exploit to get elected to the White House. On August 18, in a public address to a worried nation, the Secretary of State will declare, 'Two nukes were not enough'. To prevent the destruction of the Holy Grail, Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres and the Organisation will forge a temporary alliance with the intent of neutralizing America's nuclear arsenal. The plan will fail because of sabotage by SEELE. In desperation, Harry Potter will kill every member of the American administration using the Death Note. He will be summoned by the Wizengamot to answer charges of violating the Statute of Secrecy. Having discovered the SEELE plot, however, he will go to Antarctica and attempt to stop it instead of returning to Britain. The Wizengamot will then rule for the repossession of the assets of Potter Finance, and Lord Draco Malfoy will be unable to overrule them. This will trigger civil war in Magical Britain, which will eventually engulf the rest of Magical Europe.
Meanwhile, in Japan, the remnants of the Tohsaka and Matou clans, the late Kiritsugu Emiya's band, and the Church will forge an alliance to deal with the combined forces of the Chaos Legion and the Organisation. They will be defeated, but Ginevra Weasley and Neville Longbottom will be assassinated by Shirou Emiya and Rin Tohsaka respectively. The Organisation and the Legion will try to backstab each other simultaneously, which the Integrated Data Entity and the Sky Canopy Dominion will try to take advantage of. Yuki Nagato will attempt to betray the Entity and will be deleted from existence as a consequence. In retaliation, Kyon will use his trump card on Haruhi Suzumiya, whose annoyance with this whole long-winded FUBAR will create a timequake so severe that it will cause the Second and Third Impacts to occur simultaneously, wiping out all life on earth except for a timid boy and a narcissistic girl with mommy issues. This will happen on December 21.
.... Wow, so the Mayans were right?
You forgot a (99%) at the end. ;)
That would be overconfident. This prediction requires several burdensome additional details, including but not limited to:
The existence of the Holy Grail
The existence of Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres and his chaos legion, which ALSO implies additional burdensome details including that the laws of thermodynamics are wrong, there's a giant secret castle in Scotland where people learn magic, that giant squids live in shallow freshwater habitats, that faster-than-light travel is possible and that complete idiots could be in charge of insanely powerful magic for at least a thousand years without destroying the world.
Suzumiya Haruhi exists
Because of 3 and 2, there are two totally different systems of magic in the world.
Death Notes exist. (The probability of that given both 2 and 3 is not too bad, though.)
MoR Ginny will side with MoR Harry.
Ninjas currently exist.
Ninjas are planning to assassinate the President.
They're not just going to do that, but do it on February 13, as opposed to the 12th or 14th or some random day in March.
If Obama were assassinated, Sarah Palin would be electable.
Sarah Palin would actually try to become President under those circumstances.
To assign 99% probability to this requires some serious conjunction fallacy and something very wrong with your mind.
Alternative explanation: It's a satire of the (already ridiculously overconfident) prediction it was written in response to.
Alternative alternative explanation: The parent is also a satire of an appropriate response to said prediction.
(I thought it was funny, at least)
Ding ding ding we have a winner.
(Four downvotes? I'm really unfunny or really bad at signaling when I'm joking.)
Third hypothesis, people realised it was a joke but didn't find it sufficiently funny, and therefore chose deliberately to punish you.
It was funny enough to me.... Maybe you overdid the deadpan?
It's hard to deadpan without a face to do it with.
Sounds like something to say to Neo when he's getting lippy!
The latter, I think, and the fact that we've seen others completely miss the joke with regularity in the past.