Haha, I get the point you're making. Very well done, too.

But, hm... real scenarios are, or should be, more tightly interlinked than fictional scenarios, and it could be that international-relations scenarios are so constrained that that prediction might not be ridiculous. I mean, I'd expect the responses of countries to a nuclear war between Iran and Israel to be a lot more constrained / predictable than responses to most international incidents.