knb comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong

20 Post author: gwern 01 January 2012 09:35AM

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Comment author: knb 14 January 2012 10:52:48AM 2 points [-]
  1. Mitt Romney wins the Republican nomination (90%.)
  2. More than 1000 US troops (including soldiers, marines, sailors, and airmen) remain in Israel for at least 6 months after the ongoing joint military exercises are over. (75%)
  3. Ron Paul fails to win any states in the Republican primary. (75% probability).
  4. No 3rd party candidate gains 5% of the popular vote for president. (90%)
  5. US official unemployment rate is still above 7% in December 2012. (75%)
  6. Israel or the United States make no overt attack against Iran. (Covert drone strikes, missile strikes, or assassinations wouldn't count.) (85%)
  7. United States ceases to be a net fuel importer for 2012. (60%)
Comment author: gwern 24 January 2012 03:42:34AM 1 point [-]
  1. Covered
  2. Not listing because it'd be such a pain to judge (where would I get such information?)
  3. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3200
  4. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5480
  5. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5481
  6. Covered
  7. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5482
Comment author: gwern 01 February 2013 04:46:53PM 0 points [-]

United States ceases to be a net fuel importer for 2012. (60%)

Update on this?

Comment author: Jack 01 February 2013 05:17:10PM 1 point [-]

I'm pretty sure the US ceased to be a net fuel importer for 2011. But there is some ambiguity in "fuel".

Comment author: gwern 01 February 2013 08:08:51PM *  4 points [-]

My own understanding was that fuel should refer to petroleum in general; if it referred only to refined processed end-stage fuel, we'd reach conclusions like 'Iran is a massive net fuel importer' (because while Iran exports plenty of oil, they don't have the working refineries to turn it into gasoline etc). So for me the relevant part of that article would be

Total net crude and product imports fell 11 percent from a year earlier to 8.436 million barrels a day, the lowest level since 1995, department data showed.

Comment author: knb 02 February 2013 06:00:47AM 0 points [-]

Since I said "fuel" instead of "oil", I assume I meant refined fuels only (e.g. home heating oil, diesel, gasoline, etc.). But as Jack pointed out, it seems like that milestone was passed in 2011, so I would call it false.

Comment author: gwern 02 February 2013 04:51:44PM 0 points [-]

Alright, I'll mark it false then.

Comment author: FAWS 24 January 2012 07:59:38PM 0 points [-]

United States ceases to be a net fuel importer for 2012. (60%)

Just fuel, not figuring in crude oil?
Does this require that the United States still was a net fuel importer at the end of 2011? Or is it just a prediction that the USA will not import more fuel than it exports during 2012?

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