gwern comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong

20 Post author: gwern 01 January 2012 09:35AM

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Comment author: gwern 24 January 2012 03:36:00AM 0 points [-]
  1. Mm. I don't think I can narrow this down to any degree - by many metrics, we already do this sort of mariculture.
  2. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5470
  3. Too vague given all the possible Singularities and posthuman scenarios
  4. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5471
  5. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5472
  6. Too hard to define what is a currency
  7. Too vague - what is augmentation?
  8. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5473
  9. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5474
  10. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5475
  11. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5476
  12. Too vague, what is 'lead'?
  13. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5477
  14. Too vague, what is routinely? Seems pretty routine now...
  15. Too vague
  16. I'd like to register a low confidence prediction here, but... which deserts? Deserts usually shift. (This wouldn't be hard - for example, a prediction that the Sahara will shrink.)
  17. Too vague
  18. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5479
  19. Too vague
  20. Too vague
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