gwern comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong

20 Post author: gwern 01 January 2012 09:35AM

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Comment author: knb 14 January 2012 10:52:48AM 2 points [-]
  1. Mitt Romney wins the Republican nomination (90%.)
  2. More than 1000 US troops (including soldiers, marines, sailors, and airmen) remain in Israel for at least 6 months after the ongoing joint military exercises are over. (75%)
  3. Ron Paul fails to win any states in the Republican primary. (75% probability).
  4. No 3rd party candidate gains 5% of the popular vote for president. (90%)
  5. US official unemployment rate is still above 7% in December 2012. (75%)
  6. Israel or the United States make no overt attack against Iran. (Covert drone strikes, missile strikes, or assassinations wouldn't count.) (85%)
  7. United States ceases to be a net fuel importer for 2012. (60%)
Comment author: gwern 24 January 2012 03:42:34AM 1 point [-]
  1. Covered
  2. Not listing because it'd be such a pain to judge (where would I get such information?)
  3. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3200
  4. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5480
  5. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5481
  6. Covered
  7. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5482
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