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gwern comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong
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I will place in the top 5 for the Quantified Health Prize (either by myself or as part of a team), conditional on me submitting an entry that took me at least 40 hours of work: 95%
http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5483
Yup, fulfilled the conditional. I also almost made that prediction read that I or my team will get 1st place with 70% probability but didn't want to make that signal before people submitted. So I'll make it now.
I predict that I or my team will win (1st place) for the Quantified Health Prize. (70%)
http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5493