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mfb comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong
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This already became true, even if we don't know the size (or even the direction) of the effect yet.
After hearing a talk of an ATLAS higgs researcher, an update lowered my higgs expectations a bit: ATLAS and CMS will present a signal signifiance (local and global) of 5 sigma with the data of (2011+)2012 in combination at some time in the future: 85%
With a presentation of results (and 5 sigma, from any dataset) in 2012: 70%