mfb comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong

20 Post author: gwern 01 January 2012 09:35AM

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Comment author: mfb 01 January 2013 12:45:50PM * 2 points [-]

Let's see.

No superluminal neutrinos (85%) -> true
OPERA measurement error (50%) -> true
Higgs boson with local (90%) and global (85%) 5sigma significance (updated to 70% below) -> true
No other new particle (75%) -> true
Proton-lead-collisions (75%): This is an interesting prediction. The collisions took place, but in september. and LHC plans to collide more in february. As I posted my prediction, such a deviation from the plan was somewhere at "other things I don't even think about", therefore I did not care about a precise definition of "end of 2012". Open to interpretations.

From the other comment with predictions:

The discovery of at least one planet with less than 150% of earth's radius within the habitable zone around a main-sequence star will be presented in 2012: 75% (+"with Kepler": 70%) -> wrong