And now the scoring:
self
I'll log more than 1460 work hours in my logging tool for the year:70%
No, just 612,5 == 42% of the planned minimum.
I can accurately describe myself as a hard worker. 60%
Not quite there yet.
I weight below 100kg (220 pound) end of year: 30%
No.
I'll get the big scale project one of my teams was applying for: 20%
No.
I'll severely improve in the art that shall not be named: 60%
No.
I finish university:60%
No.
I still am involved in my goal club: 75%
Yes.
I will have experienced credit card fraud: 5%
No.
I will still follow my current diet regime (no alcohol, reduced sugar, no cola): 90%
Yes.
I'll start a business project from my backlog: 40%
No.
I'll still use NEO and F.LUX: 98 %
Yes.
I'll revisit and score this prediction in the first week of 2013: 95%
Yes.
I'll rejoin Toastmasters: 70% No.
LW I'll gain a new super important insights: 10%
Probably. Difficult to score.
There are 10 or more MOR updates:97%
Yes, but that was close.
They will be really awesome:60%
Yes.
world: the EURO will still exist: 95%
Yes
there will be steps undertaken to remove the EURO: 7%
No.
Greece got another bailout: 30%
Kind of. Hard to score.
the GRG Table E will have less than 100 cases over the whole year: 80% (this include retroactively validated entries)
Yes (61 atm)
the current 4 entries with an age over 114 will all be dead:65%
Yes.
and for calender mystics: the number of cases born <1.1.1900 will drop below 10: 70%
No (15 atm)
the world will not end in 2012: 99,99999%
Yes
people will find new scary date in the future: 87%
Hard to score, probably true.
the US or GB will take steps to increase metrification:3%
No.
Germany: the FDP (german liberal/libertarians) will be gone: 5%
No.
the FDP will become unimportant:60%
To difficult to score yet.
Germany will have a new president: 70% Yes. trueisms: some major catastrophe happens in the world:95%
Yes.
a major political scandal: 99%
Yes.
earthquakes in Japan: 100%
Yes.
Obama wins:60%
Yes.
if Ron Paul wins, he will not succeed in cutting spending:80%
Not applicable. (Also probably wrong)
people will complain, but actually be fine:90%
Yes.
I will have forgotten to write in some prediction I thought about during the last week:90%
No.
I am miscalibrated with the edgier numbers!
Going through expiring predictions reminded me. Just as we did for 2010 and 2011, it's time for LessWrong to make its beliefs pay rent and give hostages to fortune in making predictions for events in 2012 and beyond.
Suggested topics include: Methods of Rationality updates (eg. "will there be any?"), economic benchmarks (price of gold has been an educational one for me this past year), medical advances (but be careful not to be too optimistic!), personal precommitments (signing up for cryonics?), being curmudgeonly about self-improvement, making daring predictions about the future of AGI, and so on.
As before, please be fairly specific. I intend to put most predictions on PredictionBook.com and it'd be nice if they weren't too hard to judge in the future.
(If you want advice on making good predictions, I've tried to write up a few useful heuristics I've learned. So far in the judging process, I've done pretty well this year, although I'm a little annoyed I got a Yemen prediction right but for the wrong reasons.)