gwern comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong

20 Post author: gwern 01 January 2012 09:35AM

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Comment author: gwern 01 February 2013 04:46:53PM 0 points [-]

United States ceases to be a net fuel importer for 2012. (60%)

Update on this?

Comment author: Jack 01 February 2013 05:17:10PM 1 point [-]

I'm pretty sure the US ceased to be a net fuel importer for 2011. But there is some ambiguity in "fuel".

Comment author: gwern 01 February 2013 08:08:51PM *  4 points [-]

My own understanding was that fuel should refer to petroleum in general; if it referred only to refined processed end-stage fuel, we'd reach conclusions like 'Iran is a massive net fuel importer' (because while Iran exports plenty of oil, they don't have the working refineries to turn it into gasoline etc). So for me the relevant part of that article would be

Total net crude and product imports fell 11 percent from a year earlier to 8.436 million barrels a day, the lowest level since 1995, department data showed.

Comment author: knb 02 February 2013 06:00:47AM 0 points [-]

Since I said "fuel" instead of "oil", I assume I meant refined fuels only (e.g. home heating oil, diesel, gasoline, etc.). But as Jack pointed out, it seems like that milestone was passed in 2011, so I would call it false.

Comment author: gwern 02 February 2013 04:51:44PM 0 points [-]

Alright, I'll mark it false then.

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