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New Year's Prediction Thread (2012)
Going through expiring predictions reminded me. Just as we did for 2010 and 2011, it's time for LessWrong to make its beliefs pay rent and give hostages to fortune in making predictions for events in 2012 and beyond.
Suggested topics include: Methods of Rationality updates (eg. "will there be any?"), economic benchmarks (price of gold has been an educational one for me this past year), medical advances (but be careful not to be too optimistic!), personal precommitments (signing up for cryonics?), being curmudgeonly about self-improvement, making daring predictions about the future of AGI, and so on.
As before, please be fairly specific. I intend to put most predictions on PredictionBook.com and it'd be nice if they weren't too hard to judge in the future.
(If you want advice on making good predictions, I've tried to write up a few useful heuristics I've learned. So far in the judging process, I've done pretty well this year, although I'm a little annoyed I got a Yemen prediction right but for the wrong reasons.)
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Comments (339)
Ron Paul runs as an Independent or third party. 20% Obama reelected. 60% IF Obama reelected, white male goes on a shooting spree citing political climate as motivation. (Ignore this prediction if Obama not reelected.) 10% The men's rights movement is mentioned in a Time or Newsweek article. 5% Dark Knight Rises gets 50-85% on Rotten Tomatoes. (Good, but not as good as Dark Knight) 60% New Michael Jackson song released posthumously. 20% Chris Brown arrested on new domestic violence charges. 20%
If Obama is re-elected, then a white male will go on a “shooting spree” and the shooter will mention the “political climate” as a motivating factor. If the antecedent proposition is false, then this prediction will be withdrawn.
The mens’ rights movement will be mentioned by name in a Time or Newsweek article sometime during 2012.
Dark Knight Rises will be released in 2012 and will obtain Rotten Tomotoes score of at equal to or greater than 50% and equal or less than 85%.
A previously unreleased song by Michael Jackson will be released sometime before 2013.
Chris Brown will be arrested for assault, domestic violence, or criminal damage before 2013.
Any complaints with my interpretation of your prediction statements?
Looks great, thanks for figuring out the formatting.
The ones I didn't add were already on PredictionBook or had a close substitute that was.
I quite like prediction that Sean Carrol made on his blog. So much so, I will adopt them in full. They are, after all, based on Science!
Freely-falling objects will accelerate toward the ground at an approximately constant rate, up to corrections due to air resistance.
Of all the Radium-226 nuclei on the Earth today, 0.04% will decay by the end of the year.
A line drawn between any planet (or even dwarf planet) and the Sun will sweep out equal areas in equal times.
Hurricanes in the Northern hemisphere will rotate counterclockwise as seen from above.
The pressure of a gas squeezed in a piston will rise inversely with the change in volume.
Electric charges in motion will give rise to magnetic fields.
The energy of an object at rest whose mass decreases will also decrease, by the change in mass times the speed of light squared.
The content of the world’s genomes will gradually evolve in ways determined by fitness in a given environment, sexual selection, and random chance.
The entropy of closed systems will increase.
People will do many stupid things, and some surprisingly smart ones.
Death, taxes.
my predictions: at the end of the year 2012
self (*)
I'll log more than 1460 work hours in my logging tool for the year:70%
I can accurately describe myself as a hard worker. 60%
I weight below 100kg (220 pound) end of year: 30%
I'll get the big scale project one of my teams was applying for: 20%
I'll severely improve in the art that shall not be named: 60%
I finish university:60%
I still am involved in my goal club: 75%
I will have experienced credit card fraud: 5%
I will still follow my current diet regime (no alcohol, reduced sugar, no cola): 90%
I'll start a business project from my backlog: 40%
I'll still use NEO and F.LUX: 98 %
I'll revisit and score this prediction in the first week of 2013: 95%
I'll rejoin Toastmasters: 70%
(*) predicting self related things is a bit weird, since I could influence it based on the amount I bet on it
LW
I'll gain a new super important insights: 10%
There are 10 or more MOR updates:97%
They will be really awesome:60%
world:
the EURO will still exist: 95%
there will be steps undertaken to remove the EURO: 7%
Greece got another bailout: 30%
the GRG Table E will have less than 100 cases over the whole year: 80% (this include retroactively validated entries)
the current 4 entries with an age over 114 will all be dead:65%
and for calender mystics: the number of cases born <1.1.1900 will drop below 10: 70%
the world will not end in 2012: 99,99999%
people will find new scary date in the future: 87%
the US or GB will take steps to increase metrification:3%
Germany:
the FDP (german liberal/libertarians) will be gone: 5%
the FDP will become unimportant:60%
Germany will have a new president: 70%
trueisms:
some major catastrophe happens in the world:95%
a major political scandal: 99%
earthquakes in Japan: 100%
Obama wins:60%
if Ron Paul wins, he will not succeed in cutting spending:80%
people will complain, but actually be fine:90%
I will have forgotten to write in some prediction I thought about during the last week:90%
And now the scoring:
No, just 612,5 == 42% of the planned minimum.
Not quite there yet.
No.
No.
No.
No.
Yes.
No.
Yes.
No.
Yes.
Yes.
Probably. Difficult to score.
Yes, but that was close.
Yes.
Yes
No.
Kind of. Hard to score.
Yes (61 atm)
Yes.
No (15 atm)
Yes
Hard to score, probably true.
No.
No.
To difficult to score yet.
Yes.
Yes.
Yes.
Yes.
Not applicable. (Also probably wrong)
Yes.
No.
I am miscalibrated with the edgier numbers!
World politics:
One or more new 'revolutions' (described as such by international media) will take place. 80% - At least one of which will be in Sub-Saharan Africa: 60%
Fidel Castro will die, or has already died and it will be officially confirmed 90%.
Open hostilities will take place between Iran and another country 60%.
Vladimir Putin will become president of Russia: 95% - There will be significant rioting with civilian injuries in Russia: 70% - There will be substansive political change in Russia 5%.
UK politics
The coalition government will break up 10%. - One of the 3 major parties will change leader 50%.
Some random personal predictions as I find the exercise interesting:
I will have sexual interactions with one or more women. 95% [Here defining sexual interactions as something that would require an 18 certificate to display in a film, and women by their own self definition). - I will have an 'official' relationship 25% (defined as one where we both alter our facebook statuses to 'in a relationship'.) - I will have sexual relations with one or more men 1% (the prospect doesn't currently appeal to me, but given my observations of sexual preference variability in others I can't rule it out).
I will graduate university this summer. 90% - Assuming I graduate it will be with a grade of 2:1. 80% 1st 10% Other 10%
I will miss one or more deadlines due to ongoing depression and anxiety issues 80% (I would like to say lower, but given past results that seems unlikely from an outside view. )
I will break at at least one debating competition. 70%. (Break meaning entering semi finals or final depending on size of competition). I will win a Debating competition 20%.
I will attend the European debating championships. 80%. Assuming the preceding: I will be in the top half of speaker scores 95%. Top 100 60%. Top 50 10%. Break 25%.
Travel outisde UK 99%. (I intend to book tickets in the next week), - Travel outside EU 50% (no current plans but most of yea is unplanned and I wish to.
LW
This post will have positive Karma 90%. - Karma >5 50%. - Karma >10 10%.
Interesting. I think both of your numbers for UK politics are too high. Going only by what you say here, I think your number for sex with men are also too high - fewer than 10% of the men I know who identified as straight at the start of the decade had sex with a man during it.
90% is a little high for Castro dying. He's dragged on for ages; it wouldn't be that astonishing if he kept it up for another year.
My default response to a comment predicting its own karma is to downvote.
At what point will you check the Karma value? The end of the year?
What about a relationship where one of the parties doesn't have a facebook account (or some other circumstance where there is a definite/mutually-acknowledged/etc relationship, but no facebook status change)?
For anyone who wants to make predictions that you don't want to make public, I just sent a letter to my future self on FutureMe.org, and you might want to consider doing the same.
Alternately, one makes the predictions on PB.com but just checks "Keep this prediction private."
Romney will be the Republican presidential nominee: 80%.
Obama will win reelection: 90%.with a non-Romney presidential nominee, 50% against Romney
The Occupy Wall Street protests will fade away over the next year so much that I no longer hear much about them, even in my little liberal hippie news bubble: 75%
There will be massive fanboy backlash against The Hobbit: 80%. Despite this, the Hobbit will be a pretty good movie (above 75% on Rotten Tomatoes): 70%
John Carter will be a pretty good movie (above 75% on Rotten Tomatoes). 85% Whether or not it is a good movie, I will love it. 95%
I will get my first death or rape threat this year: 80% My reaction to the death or rape threat will be elation that I've finally made it in feminist blogging: 95% Even if it isn't I will totally say it is in order to seem cooler: 99%
My comod and I will complete the NSWATM spinoff book this year: 75% It will be published as an ebook: 80% It will not make the transition to dead-tree-book this year: 90% It will make the transition to dead-tree-book eventually: 60%
I will break up with my girlfriend at some point over the next year: 60%.
I will acquire a new partner at some point over the next year: 90%.
So, with a 60% chance of girlfriend breakup and a 90% chance of new partner acquisition, does this mean a 36% chance of a polyamorous, open, "cheating" or otherwise non-monogamous relationship situation for you at some point over the next year?
Edited to add: actually somewhat higher than 36%, since multiple new partners are possible along with a girlfriend breakup.
I'm already polyamorous, so there is in fact a certainty of a polyamorous relationship situation at some point in 2012. :)
I sincerely hope your girlfriend does not read this site, or at least doesn't know your username.
Are you assuming that ozy's girlfriend is unaware of this prediction? If so, why?
My girlfriend knows and is highly amused at my pessimism.
My logic is that I have never actually had a relationship that went much beyond the six-month mark, and while there are all kinds of factors that mean that this one is different and will stand the test of time, all of my other relationships also had all kinds of factors that meant this one is different and will stand the test of time.
The prediction is only 60%, however, since I might have actually gotten better at relationships since the last go-round. And because my girlfriend is really fucking awesome. :)
You may be interested in this http://lesswrong.com/lw/jx/we_change_our_minds_less_often_than_we_think .
I don't believe that that quite applies to my situation. I'm not predicting whether I'll choose right now to break up with my girlfriend (99.999% certainty I won't); I'm predicting whether at some point in the next year one of the future Ozymandiases, subtly different from me, will find zirself in a state in which zie wants to break up with zir girlfriend. I have already made up my mind to not break up; I'm predicting how likely I am to change my mind.
Are you not certain of your future self's gender, or are you using Dr Dan Streetmentioner's grammar for time travelers?
While this is amusing, Ozy's pronoun is already "zie". You may want to look up "gender binary".
Well, you see, that 60% already factors in that possibility.
My opinion is that a lot of the OWS folks are conferring and planning during the winter, and will continue to protest but will be doing something other than occupying public or semi-public spaces. I don't know how to frame this as a testable prediction.
Not too far off my own estimate, but... = 42% chance of a Republican president in 2013.
...seems overconfident. Counterprediction: OWS comes roaring back in some form|GOP presidency : 85%
Assuming only, say 20% chance of OWS maintaining itself in some form under a Democrat, that still gives (0.85x0.42 + 0.2x0.58) = 0.515 of continued OWS activity. Rounding down to correct for the likelihood of overconfidence at some intermediate step, I'll say Chance of OWS fading away: 50%
It is true, I forgot to account for the effects of a GOP presidency on OWS. However, I still think there's a high chance of a OWS fadeaway for a few reasons. One, the liberal hippies (generally the backbone of social justice movements) have started to nitpick OWS in earnest: this could be a sign either that OWS is getting more successful (and the crab in a bucket mentality is taking over) or that it's losing their support, but given that the mainstream media seems to have decided OWS is yesterday's news, I think it might be the latter. Second, as the economy splutters into recovery, OWS will get less support. Third, if OWS continues to get more popular, the government will likely make some token effort to address their concerns that will take away some of the momentum of the movement.
Nevertheless, you did mention an important factor I overlooked, so I'll downgrade it to a roughly 60% probability.
You haven't gotten one yet?
I once had a totally non-political blog with less than 1000 views per month, and I still got a few.
No death or rape threats. I have yet to come up with a theory about why (beyond "crazy random happenstance" and "I'm so nice no one wants to rape and murder me"); suggestions appreciated.
The sort of people who make rape threats on feminist websites wouldn't rape or don't believe it is possible to rape someone with a masculine sounding screen-name.
But what about the death threats? (It's still probably the screename, though.)
I feel tempted to send you some extremely silly and colorful threats just so you can check off that milestone. ("I will pay Pinky from Pinky and the Brain to invent a time-travel machine to genetically modify your great-great-grandparents so that you end up with a lethal allergy to Cornish pasties, and then I will mail you a Cornish pasty!")
I'm standing by my 2011 prediction:
I could probably nudge probabilities one way or another if I checked extra year's worth of information, but since I didn't I have no idea which way it will go.
Is that a worldwide prediction?
Yes, that should be understood unless explicitly stated otherwise.
Yes. But not enough to make it feel like the story is moving towards a conclusion.
They will be incremental, enough so that very, very few people will notice any practical impact on their lives. Some advances, however, will be accompanied by a great deal of hype. Evidence will emerge that some treatments which we think work now do not in fact work.
I will continue to believe cryonics is something I would sign up for if I had money to spare, but will also continue to feel too poor to have money to spare.
This isn't really about AGI, but I expect to be amazed by at least one cool new application of computing that vaguely resembles human intelligence.
By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.
40%
What do you mean by "nuclear weapons"? It's clear they had some sort of nuclear material in some sort of bomb.
This prediction could be made less ambiguous by specifying whether you mean that North Korea never successfully built a nuclear weapon but was sincerely trying to do so or you mean that they were never seriously attempting to build one in the first place.
Given you are not necessarily dealing with hugely rational individuals 'sincerely trying to' is hard to prove. If I give someone $1 to buy me a car am I sincerely trying to obtain one?
I meant either of those scenarios.
What do you mean with "clear"? Majority opinion among defense experts? Something stronger?
Majority opinion among defense experts would suffice, though I was picturing a more tumultuous scenario where the information leaks or just otherwise becomes widely known, via defection or invasion or collapse or revolution, etc.
Recorded.
The U.S. Presidential candidate who spends the most money on his campaign will be elected.
Why is this downvoted? Too obvious?
Hard to judge, thanks to the Citizens case, and I can't help but wonder if it's near tautology - the more popular candidate wins, and also raises the most.
It's not a tautology because they are not logically equivalent (heh), but a spurious correlation, yes.
I was going to assign this prediction 50%, then I remembered the effect gwern mentioned here.
Obama will win in November 2012.
P=~.9 (that is ninety percent!)
Intrade gives him barely above 50% chance, so you can make some money fast if you really believe your prediction.
And it's correct.
I want to make a bet at those odds. Mostly based on gwern's reply.
90%? I think you need to read some Nate Silver. (Also, existing prediction.)
Thank you for the link to Silver's piece. I followed 538 in 2008 but I had not looked at it in awhile. Obviously .9 is far too high.
Upvoted for updating.
All predictions are for 2012.
Homestuck:
Andrew Hussie releases at least one flash lasting longer than 10 minutes: 65%
Karkat, Terezi, John, Dave, Rose and Jade will not be permanently removed from story (Being killed off but returning as a ghost/sprite/whatever doesn't count as being permanently removed; being killed off and spending eternity in a dream-bubble and having no further contribution to the story does): 80%
The hints that Betty Crocker/Her Imperious Condesencion is running post-scratch Desrse will prove to be misdirection on Hussie's part: 20%
Baseball:
The San Francisco Giants will have a winning season. 80%
The Giants will make the postseason (either as NL West Champions or as a Wildcard team): 50%
Pablo Sandoval will hit at least 25 home runs: 80%
Ryan Braun will successfully appeal his suspension: 45%
Albert Pujols will finish the season with a batting average below .300: 65%
Casually wonders how many Homestuckers on LW.
I somehow never thought to combine Homestuck wild mass guessing with prediction markets. And didn't really expect this on LW, for some reason. Holy cow.
Hm, let's try my two favorite pet theories...
In a truly magnificent Moebius double reacharound, The troll universe will turn out to have been created by the kids' session (either pre- or post- scratch): 40% (used to be higher, but now we have some asymmetries between the sessions, like The Tumor, so.)
In an even more bizarre mindscrew that echoes paradox cloning, the various kids and guardians will turn out to be the same people in both sessions (e.g. Poppop Crocker is the very same John we know, the Bro that cuts the meteor is the same one who programmed the auto-responder, etc.). That means that, at least for the Derse dreamers, each of them raised their own guardian, probably inflicting upon them whichever neurosis they got from them in the first place. 35% on this one, because it entails some heavy-duty time shenaniganry. But I still like this one best :3
And on a more light-hearted note... Human-troll sloppy makeouts to happen at any point in the story: 90%
(all these predictions are not time-bound to 2012 - apply until the end of the story, including the Epilogue)
I'm fairly convinced (65%) that Lalonde appearified the Sassacre book in such a way that it killed Jaspers, which is why she had to leave so abruptly.
Post-Scratch!Bro will be revealed as the Hero of Mind: 65%.
Why Mind? Terezi ain't going anywhere; or at least, she better not. I'm thinking either Heart (poor Nepeta ;_;) or Doom.
EDIT (WARNING: CONJUNCTION FALLACY, SPOILERS AHOY): So my prevailing theory is that the pre-Scratch kids, the surviving trolls, and the post-Scratch kids all join forces and make up a 12-person group in the post-Scratch session. In the post-Scratch session, the prototyping rings of Derse and Prospit only get four charges, so it'll be much easier than the troll's session.
The four kids give us Breath, Light, Time and Space. Of the remaining trolls, this theory predicts Aradia dies a heroic death holding back Troll!Jack. That leaves Blood, Rage, Mind, and Doom.
Jane is pretty clearly Life, and Jake is Hope. That leaves Void and Heart. Rolal's dreamself wanders the Furthest Ring and is hard to keep track of, so that makes Void more likely. Di-Stri's recent pesterlog was emotionally intelligent, so I favor him to be Heart.
Of course, now I have to explain how Aradia dies to Troll!Jack, but somehow Sollux survives.
Dirk Strider is the Prince of Heart. Sorry, taelor.
Well, that was bust. Heart it is.
Hussie will tease various ships, but ultimately, none will be made canon: 55%.
That seems vastly underconfident and I don't even know what Homestuck is. My guess is that the "not canon" part is what drives it down. Some slight research suggests this is a correct estimation of the author's attitude.
... . .-. . -. .. - -.-- / .-. ..- .-.. . ...
I predict that the youtube music video with the most views of 2012 will either be:
1) A Farsi reggae version of "Good King Wenceslas", by an Iranian who has publicly wished for the death of Barack Obama or;
2) A pudgy middle-aged guy singing about some district of Seol that no non-Koreans have ever heard about. In Korean. Also, he will have publicly expressed the wish that the family members of American servicemembers will die.
And the president will watch this performance and applaud.
ALSO I predict that at least one American presidential candidate will publicly take a stance against a major character from Sesame Street.
ALSO I predict that the Queen of Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Great Britain will be seen parachuting into London, or at least her stunt double will do so with her apparent consent, if not pleasure.
Most fearsome of all: I predict (rot13 for the faint of heart)
Guvf pbzzrag vf n cynprubyqre. V cerqvpg gung, nobhg n lrne sebz abj, V'yy rqvg guvf pbzzrag gb ergebnpgviryl znxr zlfrys ybbx oevyyvnag. Ng guvf cbvag, V fubhyq cebonoyl vafreg fbzr xvaq bs rzbgvpba be fbzrguvat gb vaqvpngr gung V'z abg pbzcyrgryl frevbhf. Ba frpbaq gubhtug, V pbhyq qb gung ergebnpgviryl nf jryy.
Unccl arj lrne, YrffJebat! Guvf lrne, znl nyy bs hf or yrff jebat guna jr jrer ynfg lrne!
C.F. V'q or tengrshy sbe ercyl pbzzragf nybat gur yvarf bs, fnl, "Arire! Pyrneyl lbh ner rvgure znq be -- vs guvf cerqvpgvba pbzrf gehr -- n travhf!" Gunaxf va nqinapr.
Not to be a drag, but your evil schemes will come to naught. When you edit a post it changes the date next to your name and adds an asterisk at the end, thereby destroying your illusion of prescience.
EDIT: The italicized and bolded text above is incorrect as pointed out by wedrifid.
Does it?
EDIT: This comment has been edited after the child comment.
EDIT: Didn't think so. The asterix is added, of course. The date doesn't change.
EDIT: In case the purpose of this was missed (it seems to have been). I saw something wrong, but before I corrected I realized that I might be overconfident. So the right thing to do is test!
I tested it for myself and falsified my original claim about the date. Thanks for making me less wrong.
Never! Clearly you are either mad or -- if this prediction comes true -- a genius!
It is hard for me to articulate how unlikely this is to occur. You are either the most sublime genius to ever exist, or a giant fool.
oh yeah?
Two can play at this game.
I don't know what to say...
Incorrect, since nyan_sandwich's post lacks the asterix after the posting time marking an edited post.
Solvent didn't edit ver comment, either. Solvent's point was that, a year from now, Costanza can just say that nyan_sandwich made up a fake quote.
irrelevant, presence or absence of the asterix for the quoted post is what matters.
Not at anywhere near the same level of plausibility. Lack of asterix means definite proof that the quote is fake.
I could find a comment of yours that you edited after publishing, and comment a fake "quote of the original" on it.
See, I agree that having an unedited comment is very important for verifying predictions later- but nyansandwich's comment won't count to a future reader as infallible evidence of what Costanza once said. The future reader must consider the possibility that nyansandwich was lying.
(Of course, ve wasn't. But we're all being pedantic here.)
Dammit, I forgot that the underscore in nyan sandwich's name would translate into italics. And for obvious reasons, I ain't editing that comment.
So what? None of that impacts my point that the relation between the two comment pairs in question is not symmetric in the way originally implied.
I endorse the parent comment as being honestly quoted from the grandparent comment, which does not contain further predictions.
I predict changes will be made to LessWrong's interface within the year that will make this impossible (e.g. a 'edited' date marker). 50%
I also predict you will forget about this comment or for some other reason not in fact edit it. 90%
Very nearly right about me forgetting, but it's a year to the day. Happy new year!
(Reposting because parent was downvoted below default visibility. Original post here)
On February 13th, President Obama will be assassinated by ninjas. This will lead to a political crisis, which Sarah Palin will exploit to get elected to the White House. On August 18, in a public address to a worried nation, the Secretary of State will declare, 'Two nukes were not enough'. To prevent the destruction of the Holy Grail, Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres and the Organisation will forge a temporary alliance with the intent of neutralizing America's nuclear arsenal. The plan will fail because of sabotage by SEELE. In desperation, Harry Potter will kill every member of the American administration using the Death Note. He will be summoned by the Wizengamot to answer charges of violating the Statute of Secrecy. Having discovered the SEELE plot, however, he will go to Antarctica and attempt to stop it instead of returning to Britain. The Wizengamot will then rule for the repossession of the assets of Potter Finance, and Lord Draco Malfoy will be unable to overrule them. This will trigger civil war in Magical Britain, which will eventually engulf the rest of Magical Europe.
Meanwhile, in Japan, the remnants of the Tohsaka and Matou clans, the late Kiritsugu Emiya's band, and the Church will forge an alliance to deal with the combined forces of the Chaos Legion and the Organisation. They will be defeated, but Ginevra Weasley and Neville Longbottom will be assassinated by Shirou Emiya and Rin Tohsaka respectively. The Organisation and the Legion will try to backstab each other simultaneously, which the Integrated Data Entity and the Sky Canopy Dominion will try to take advantage of. Yuki Nagato will attempt to betray the Entity and will be deleted from existence as a consequence. In retaliation, Kyon will use his trump card on Haruhi Suzumiya, whose annoyance with this whole long-winded FUBAR will create a timequake so severe that it will cause the Second and Third Impacts to occur simultaneously, wiping out all life on earth except for a timid boy and a narcissistic girl with mommy issues. This will happen on December 21.
.... Wow, so the Mayans were right?
Confidence: 99% (Thanks to katydee for the reminder.)
</prediction>
Discussion about a possible fic based on this bizarre mish-mash of universes may be found here
Mayans. Not Mayas. /annoying nitpick
Fixed.
Why is this in the negative?
Someone's downvoting the post and every single reply to it. Why? I have no idea.
EDIT: And now someone upvoted every single reply. Heisenberg FTW.
Oops!
(It's a little embarrassing to make a mistake for such a high confidence prediction! But I'm sure LW won't judge you too much. ;) )
Most of the predictions in this thread will turn out to have been overconfident
The above prediction will turn out to have been overconfident.
All three predictions in this post will turn out to have been overconfident.
:p
This is tough to score objectively because not all the predictions in this thread assign a numerical probability to the prediction statement.
Also, because of that whole P(¬X) = 1 - P(X) thing, any deviation from perfect calibration (whether under or overconfidence) is necessarily overconfidence (if not of that particular proposition, then the negation of that proposition).
Hahahaha, nice word choice.
Is that supposed to be a joke? I don't get it.
There are ways of measuring overconfidence. People make declarations in a positive sense with a probability greater than 50%. They are overconfident in the sense that when framed that way, they assign too high a probability to the more likely outcome. This is also testable by a variety of metrics. For example, you could do a calculation where one assumes that there's a betting market and everyone here has made a $1 even bet with their confidence as given in this thread. Then, if they are overconfident in the above sense, one expects that the total result over all bets will be a loss.
Trying to work out if there are any falsification conditions for the above...
Count all the predictions that were assigned a 90% probability, and determine if the percentage that were correct is less than 90%? Repeat for all other probabilities?
These are already on PredictionBook:
Eliezer Yudkowsky will follow Kevin’s diet for at least three months in the next two years. PB link, link to diet.
If Eliezer Yudkowsky decides to follow Kevin’s diet for at least three months in the next two years, his end weight after three months will be at least ten pounds (~4.5 kg) lighter than his starting weight. PB link.
A list of my predictions for 2012 can be found here. They are far too numerous to bother listing them in this thread.
If anyone wants a laugh, the BBC has a list of user-submitted predictions for 2112. The most amusing part is not the predictions themselves, but the "likelihood" the article gives them.
I will place in the top 5 for the Quantified Health Prize (either by myself or as part of a team), conditional on me submitting an entry that took me at least 40 hours of work: 95%
You may have just decreased your prior likelihood given that one of us may have read that and thought hmm, if it's relatively not a ton of work, maybe it's more worth giving a shot.
Just putting that out there. 95%, huh? Would you be willing to make a bet?
Also, more likely than people reading this and going on to make a submission is that people read that, think that, try giving it a shot and then give up in disgust because nutrition is not actually a science, it's just a field where scientists pretend they are doing science. The literature is somewhere between awful and useless. I think Personalized Medicine is going to be disappointed in the results of the contest because it's so hard to make conclusions as evidence backed as would seem likely before digging into the literature.
I am also predicting, that:
1 - neutrinos will be faster than light in 2012 (60% confidence)
2 - Higgs boson will NOT be seen in 2012 (85% confidence)
I was wrong.
Was "seen indirectly". Exceeded my expectations.
My predictions to these topics: No experiment apart from OPERA will measure a neutrino speed >c with a significance of more than 3 sigma in 2012: 85% - where the 15% are mainly related to measurement errors OPERA or others will find a significant error in OPERAs measurements in 2012: 50%
Higgs boson will be seen with a local 5 sigma significance (ATLAS+CMS alone or in combination) near ~125 GeV in 2012: 90% - the current signal is quite clear already, even without the magic 5 sigma. So I expect that new data will increase the significance. From the 10%, a large part is related to possible problems with the LHC, it includes serious analysis problems, bad luck and the simple "there is no higgs". Higgs boson will be seen with a global 5 sigma significance (ATLAS+CMS alone or in combination) near ~125 GeV in 2012: 85% - this needs a bit more data than the local significance.
No other new particles will be seen with 5 sigma significance in 2012: 75% - up to now, I did not see any hint for a new particle from both collaborations, so I think there is no 3sigma evidence for anything at the moment
The LHC will collide protons with lead at the end of 2012: 75% - it was tested in 2011, but technical problems prevented collisions
Let's see.
From the other comment with predictions:
This is great. You have predictions quite opposite to mines and we will see who is more right quite clearly.
I wish there was more dueling predictions.
Quibble, presumably you mean neutrinos will be proven to be travelling faster than speed of light?
Not proven. The next experiment(s) in 2012 will say the same as those of 2011 and earlier.
Still, the result will not be widely accepted as a proof.
And I give another prediction. Several "Earth like planets" will be in the media. And maybe a few Higgs "near sightings".
Off the shelf HUD like computer (wearable display) comes out - 30%
Made by Google - 50%
Made by Apple - 40%
Other - 10 %
I think you're underestimating other here... I think there are lots of scenarios where a tiny start-up makes a barely functional and ugly HUD a good year or two before Apple comes out with those obnoxious sunglasses with glowing apples on them that we're going to have to deal with everyone walking around wearing from here to the Singularity (or at least from here to smart contact lenses). The technology is out there though not at all mature, it's mostly a software problem now.
Um, those last three probabilities add up to 110%.
they don't exclude each other.
SOPA will not pass congress. 75%
SOPA will return in some form and cause another internet uproar: 50%
EDIT: Let's make this independent of other bets: Another attempted internet blacklist bill will cause an uproar in 2012. By 'another' I mean not the current version of SOPA currently being processed.
Ok, let's join the party! Personal:
I will manage to rent my grandparent's house before the end of the year 40% I will manage to sell my grandparent's house before the end of the year 15% (Neither of the two happens 45%)
My girlfriend will come to live with me in my flat before the end of the year: 60%
I will manage to stabilize my weight between 70 and 73 kilos: 50%
I will buy more than 50 musical records on physical support (cd / vinyl) 70%
I will finally do a complete inventory of my music collection 30%
In case the previous happens, I will turn out to own more than 1000 albums 80%
I will end up fighting with my very fervent and freshly converted friend because of a joke about religion I made 20%
Sport
Roger Federer will win at least one grand slam tournament or the olympic gold medal 70%
No Italian football team will reach the semifinals of the Europa League or the Champions League 75%
Italy will win between 8 and 12 gold medal at the summer olympics games 80%
(Italian) politics, economy and society
There will be an election round in 2012 80%
Neither of the two biggest parties will get more than 30% of the preferences if the previous happens 70%
Italy won't default 95%
Price of gas will reach a peak greater than 2.00 € / liter 40%
The Catholic Church will still be exempted from the payment of the IMU (tax on the property of buildings) 95%
Miscellaneous
ATLAS and CMS will announce the discovery of the Higgs Boson 95%
No other new particles will be discovered (5 sigma significance) in 2012 60%
HPMOR won't be finished before the end of the year 60%
The mean temperature in Europe during July will be higher than the corresponding one in 2011 75%
Before I give my predictions for this year, a record of how I did on last year's predictions.
Was correct.
I haven't been able to judge this. It looks hard to tell but seems to be correct. However, to a large extent this being correct extended from something I didn't anticipate- it took much longer to actually implement the repeal than I expected, so the repeal took effect fairly late in the year.
I initially gave this 75% but further discussion suggested I was underconfident and so I bounced this up to 95% and was correct.
Was incorrect.
A few such scandals occurred but none of them were in churches nearly large enough. So this was incorrect.
Was incorrect.
So with this out of the way new predictions. I'm not including here any predictions that have an end date of 2013 which I've already put in PredictionBook.
The first four predictions are predictions which are updated versions of predictions from last year:
Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities, or the North Korean government will collapse. Confidence: 75%
The Riemann Hypothesis will not be proven in 2012. Confidence 95%
P != NP will not be resolved in 2013. Confidence 95%
General AI will not be built in 2013. Confidence: 95%
The next set of predictions is about computational complexity:
The relationship between P and BQP will not be resolved in 2012. Confidence: 85%
There will be improvement in efficient matrix multiplication in 2012 that will be discussed in at least one of the following blogs: Combinatorics and more, Shetl-Optimized, Godel's Lost Letter. Confidence: 52%
In 2012 there will be new results for either the group isomorphism problem or the graph isomorphism problem discussed at at least one of the following blogs: Combinatorics and more, Shetl-Optimized, Godel's Lost Letter. Confidence: 52%.
No improvement in factoring integers in a classical setting that has better time-asymptotics than the best current ones will be made in 2012. Confidence: 85%
The next two predictions have to do with the integer complexity problem. (Background on that can be found here.)
No one one will resolve in 2012 whether integer complexity function is asymptotic to 3log_3 n. 58%
I will coauthor at least one paper on integer complexity by 2013. Confidence: 61%
The next few predictions concern space travel and exploration.
Humans will continue to have at least one functioning probe on Martian surface or a satellite around Mars for all of 2012. Confidence: 98%
Russia will lose at least one rocket launch in 2012 . Confidence: 55%
No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012: Confidence 96%
The Hubble Telescope will continue functioning though 2012. Confidence: 85%
Miscellaneous predictions:
HPMOR will update at least twice in 2012. Confidence: 75%
In 2012, I will go to at least two open viewing nights for telescopes in the greater Boston area. Confidence: 58%
I will not become a vegetarian in 2012. Confidence: 80%
My mother will not read any books by Steven Pinker this year. Confidence: 85%
I will have a total LessWrong karma of at least 10,000 by the end of the year. Confidence: 75%
Meta-predictions:
At least one of the above predictions will turn out to be correct for reasons that are surprising to me. Confidence: 80%
I find this confusing; I would expect P vs. BQP to be harder to resolve than P vs. NP.
The year report for the 2012 of the SIAI will be approximately the same as for the 2011. No essentially new things mentioned. Confidence 0.9.
At least one event as important as Watson Jeopardy! will be announced by IBM or some other organization. Confidence 0.8.
P(Eliezer Yudkowsky will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ) = 0.20
Note: I increased my probability estimate since I originally made the prediction based on the fact that I just made a comment in a high-profile thread in the Main section discussing it.
Okay, this seems like nothing could possibly go wrong just from my making some educated guesses, right?
90%: the probabilities in this post are poorly calibrated, but things I think are likely will probably happen, and the converse is also true.
10%: I'll learn to play Magic: the Gathering by 2013.
.1%: Singularity occurs before January 1, 2013.
80%: Occupy protests do not end before May.
90%: Judge Rotenberg Center continues torturing children at least through December 31, 2012.
99% There will be at least one update to Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality this year.
99% The Winds of Winter will not be released this year.
85% George R. R. Martin will not die this year.
While I know nothing about the case, given that sentence has the same structure as 'have you stopped beating your wife' it may be hard to place a prediction on.
It doesn't have the same structure at all. "No" is always the preferred response to "do you continue to beat your wife?" The preferred answer of a strict reading of "have you stopped beating your wife?" depends on whether you had been previously (which sets up the trap of the joke).
That's why you think it's unreasonable to accuse them of torture.
I'll consider myself to have guessed wrong if it comes out that they were really never torturing anyone at all to begin with. I will not, however, use a euphemism when what I mean is "torture".
Point was, you didn't make the accusation first, and then predict its continuation.
I didn't think I needed to for the same reason that I didn't think I needed to separately claim that there are OWS protests before predicting their continuation. I thought this wasn't up for debate.
Rotenburg Center
I agree that this is torture. However, I recommend adding links for subjects which aren't common knowledge.
Another school-- uses mace rather than electric shocks
I have no strong opinion about when or whether these practices will be stopped.
Do you think you could make a hundred predictions like "Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be updated this year" or "The Winds of Winter will not be released this year" and only be wrong once? Maybe you're right, but your confidence seems high to me. (Note that 98% resp. 96% allows you two resp. four errors.)
Yes, I really mean that high confidence. The Winds of Winter is the sixth in a series; the fifth was released in July, six years after the fourth, which was released two years after it was due and five years after the third book. The author is slipping, the books are getting longer and less manageable and the author enjoys watching football. He's also spent a LONG time promoting his latest book so aggressively I'm just about sure he can't have been writing for months. It's just barely conceivable he could deliver a manuscript to a publisher in 2012, but if so, it would be late 2012, and it would be published in 2013. It essentially would be fighting the barriers of what's possible for him to do for him to actually get it done in time for a 2012 release date. Another author might do it, but not him and not his thousand-page doorstoppers.
For a non-abandoned fic like HP:MoR, with 76 updates in 22 months, where Eliezer actually has the next chapter completed already and is just trying to do two at once, it will take a catastrophe to keep an update from happening this year. (Hmm. Given the high likelihood of a catastrophe happening, maybe I did guess too high there.)
I still think you are about 5% too high on both of those predictions, but at least you aren't being stupid in arriving at your probabilities.
(By the way, if you are wrong, you've done your future self a service by writing this comment - explaining in detail your reasons is one of the few known effective tactics against hindsight bias.)
A bit off topic, but you seem to be doing this kind of thing a lot: is there any trick for calibrating high-/low-probability events? I can see how to figure out whether my 50% is 50% or 40%, but I'd need to make a lot of predictions to get a statistically useful number of 1% predictions wrong, even if my 1% is really 2% (a serious error!)
Are there any tricks? Base-rates/frequencies (plus Laplace's law) and breaking down conjunctions (#2 and 3 in http://www.gwern.net/Prediction%20markets#how-i-make-predictions ).
You can know that your numbers were wrong, if many of the 1-2% predictions become true. But there is no way to find out (by looking at the outcome) whether it was 1% or 2% without several hundred predictions.
How would you define "end"? Without a coherent leadership OWS cannot formally declare themselves finished. The most likely "end" for OWS will be that most of the protesters go home while a few stragglers will stick around for years.
Well, there are potential self-fulfilling prophecy effects, but I suspect the only one for which they're worth even mentioning is #2, and it's not clear that such an effect would constitute "going wrong".
Added some predictions:
1) 75%: On Jan 1, 2013, there will be 3 or fewer movies from 2011 on imdb’s top 250. (down from current 6) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top (http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5059)
2) 50%: On Jan 1, 2013, there will be seven or more movies from 2012 on imdb’s top 250. http://www.imdb.com/chart/top (http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5060)
3) 85%: The Shawshank Redemption will be #1 on imdb’s top 250 on Jan 1, 2013. (it is currently #1) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top (http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5061)
4) 60%: 12 Angry Men will be #5 or higher on imdb’s top 250 on Jan 1, 2013. (it is currently #6) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top (http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5062)
5) 10%: By Jan 1, 2013, there will be a way to directly input your estimated probability distribution across a range of different possible quantities when making a prediction on PB. (http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5063)
6) 50%: At least three papers with the word “connectomics” in their title or abstract will be published in Nature in 2012. (http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5064)
imdb voting always had a strong bias towards old movies, but this is getting ridiculous.
These were decent movies, but not even remotely close to top 10. I don't see how they'd even manage to legitimately get into top 100.
This might be the source of the problem: "For this top 250, only votes from regular voters are considered". My suspicion is that their "regular voter" filter is broken and causes this problem.
If you're so sure, then what would your top 10 be?
They famously don't say what the filter is, to prevent gaming. If it is broken now it must have been broken for a long time, because I don't remember any major single-day jumps of late, except for times when they altered the "m" parameter.
I have no issues with the following movies from the top list (there are some big omissions but they're all awesome movies):
Schindler's List loses at least one star for its ending alone.
City of God is the only movie there I don't remember watching, so I cannot say much either way. Godfather I've watched so long ago, I won't be saying anything about it now.
Movies really get a lot better as time goes. Old movies near the top are simply not that good.
IMDB's treatment of single multipart movies like Lord of the Rings and especially Kill Bill as multiple separate movies annoys me a lot, but that's an entirely different story.
Broken as in drastically unrepresentative, not as in gameable.
EDIT: Here's my theory.
60% seems way too high to me. The number of votes on 12 Angry Men and Pulp Fiction are both very high- for one to move up and the other to move down seems like it would require a large number of votes distributed differently from past votes.
Number 5 is my somewhat lame attempt at a feature request. What I mean is that, for example, on #6, I'd like to be able to say, that I assign, say, a 15% chance to there being 0 such papers, a 15% chance of 1, a 20% chance of 2, and so on. Of course, I could make multiple predictions, but this is tedious. It'd be really nice to be able to assign probabilities to a full range of quantities on one question. (And I expect it would make my predictions more accurate, too.) Each individual probability assignment would have to be judged "correct" or "incorrect" independently.
So... how did I do for my 2011 predictions?
Apparently correct.
Apparently incorrect. It wasn't much higher, but it was still higher.
Wrong. To my surprise, the book did indeed come out.
As expected, no AGI.
As expected, the world is still here.
Wrong again here; she died in January.
As expected, no proof.
As expected, no qualification.
As expected, no job.
Do you need to have an actual probability? Do you have to bet anything to post predictions? Do you have to be on PredictionBook.com?
Because this seems cool, but I'm not sure...?
Dunno if there are particular rules for this thread, but in general we encourage predictions to have confidence intervals associated with them. No bets needed, PredictionBook.com account not required.
gwern, a nitpick on "So I applied this heuristic: what does the existence of an 130 year-old in 2025 imply about people in 2011? Well, if someone is 130 in 2025, then that implies that are now 116 years old (130-(2025-2011)). Then I looked up the oldest person in the world: Besse Cooper, aged 115 years old."
It's quite plausible that records will turn up within the next 13 years to show that someone is 116 years old now.
Is it? Could you name some previous instances where records turned up in the past few decades for a supercentenarian where the new claim was accepted and didn't look like a scam?
Some 2012-specific stuff. It's all a bit fluff-y, but unfortunately in all the high-status areas I either won't do better than the base rate or have just made it past Mount Stupid and really don't feel like making predictions just yet. I'm hoping for others to post way-too-confident comments I can make cynical predictions about. Anyway:
I still predict that Luke won't finish his metaethics sequence in 2012, especially now that the scope has widened.
The fifth book of the "A Song of Ice and Fire" series actually came out (contrary to expectations) and GRRM is still alive, so I'm reasonably confident he won't die in 2012 either. I'm a little less sure if the TV show will actually cover all the books, but still somewhat optimistic.
Half-Life 3 won't come out. Not sure what will happen to EP3, but seems more likely than not it won't get released either. Still thinking.
Reddit: I'm less confident now we'll get an epic "told you so!" conclusion to the birth certificate threads after the whole birdie/cheese disaster. My trust in Reddit's ability to deliver in 2012 is way down.
And of course: the world doesn't end on 12/21, probably, but I'm still giving it a 1% shot. I'm not sure if my sanity's slipping again, but "we are in a supervised simulation" still seems not too implausible (say, 0.01% <= p <= 20%).
I'm also practicing my "that was a totally lame twist and I called it ages ago" skills. (Obviously spoilers behind links, but not in this comment.)
I've done fairly well with Dexter's 6th season (three notable predictions) and have added some about season 7, but as I intentionally only follow the series itself, most serious predictions will have to wait for the first episode (except for the important one).
(Unfortunately I don't watch any "lame twist" shows besides Dexter right now, but I'm checking if I missed some.)
So given that we're in a supervised simulation, the world ends on December 21st with p>1/20 ?
Yes. It's a sufficiently weird feature of the kind of simulation I would join. An apocalypse seems fitting, and 12/21 is the most prominent date we had since Y2K, but it's more surreal and a nice numerological coincidence, so more likely. (See Theory of Narrative Causation.)
I'll state here, for the record, that at some point in the future (post-singularity?) I intent to implement Sburb, grab some friends, suppress their memories (and mine) and make a proper game of it. I made this decision back in 2011, when I first ran into Homestuck.
It is in the nature of my personality that I would probably be unable to resist using 2012 for the start date, not least since I have a bunch of nieces and nephews at the appropriate age to be players right now. :P
I have no idea how to assign a probability to this currently being the case, though. ^^;
What are the odds of this being judged wrong?
A trustworhy friend has told me that there are two HPMOR chapters in the pipeline-- I could check the website, which is where he says he got the information, but what would be the fun in that?
There will be a US election. People will say they're sick of politics. One of the candidates will win.
I expect there will be 2 winners in the 2012 national US election with p>.99. :P
This stranger on the internet confirms it! From the sounds of it the chapters are going to be long.
I am deeply interested in predictions regarding the progress of the charter city projects in Honduras, though I can't make any meaningful predictions on the topic myself.