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gwern comments on Rationality quotes January 2012 - Less Wrong
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Well, he knows about the Hallows themselves via wiki-readings. I think he would have written the story the way it is whether he knew about the tombstone or not, but I put fairly high probability that he does know about the tombstone and how fantastically awesome an endcap it's going to be on the story.
Mm. Maybe: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5122
I think there's a close to 100% chance that the tombstone will be alluded to, because even if Eliezer DIDN'T know about it before, he will by the time the story ends (because I will have questioned and informed him about this), and after that I just can't imagine him making such a terrible mistake as to NOT include the tombstone's quote.
I do think a simple bet of "did he already plan this?" is feasible. We can just ask him. (I put odds at 75%).
(By "close to 100%" I mean maybe 95. I can think of scenarios where he hadn't originally planned for the tombstone and where it would be hard to integrate it)
Oh fine: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5124 But you'd better ask him now!
I was already aware of the quote. It's on James and Lily's tombstone (in canon).
I see; but the predictions/questions wasn't were you aware of it at all, but were you planning to incorporate it ex ante, and did you ex post.
If it's incorporated it will have been planned beforehand.
You and your silly hatred of spoilers. (The recent experimental evidence, BTW, suggests spoilers are not harmful but helpful for enjoyment.) But I guess that statement works.
For what it's worth, there are stories where I've appreciated going in with no knowledge except for some reason to think I'd like it (the movie Hugo 3D is a recent example, for Mieville's Un Lun Dun I just had a reasonable guess about genre).
I think I lost some of the impact of A Deepness in the Sky because I knew what Focus was before I started reading.
I think whether spoilers are harmful varies among works and among readers. (For example, ‘finding out how it ends’ was the only reason why I finished reading Digital Fortress by Dan Brown rather than throwing it in the garbage bin right after the first couple chapters; if I had already known the ending I would likely not have enjoyed it at all (except possibly for laughing at it).)
If I had been thinking better I would have specified "did he know" rather than "did he plan" so that we could resolve the issue. (I think there is at least a 30% chance one (if not both) of us will have forgotten this wager by the time the reveal happens)
That's what PredictionBook is for. So far I have a good record for long-term use of it...