Hm. Let me write a short "Defense of Mount Stupid" (I love the term, by the way; great fan of SMBC, too). Or, to be more accurate, I'm going to muse around the topic, in hope this shakes out some other ideas and thoughts on the subject.

I spent quite a bit of my late teens/early twenties yelling at people from the top of Mount Stupid. As Nornagest describes, internet debates changed everything: once the words were permanently written, I couldn't bullshit as effectively, nor could I easily change the subject if some bit of bullshit gets caught. I found my baseless assertions and half-assed pontifications challenged by people who had better knowledge of the subject and better understanding of the data. It took about two or three spectacular shootdowns, but I eventually learned my lesson. Permanent record is a good thing, and these days I generally refuse to enter into content-intensive verbal debates whenever possible. Let's sit down, sonny, and write our arguments down.

However, I eventually also found my fear of Mt. Stupid quite limiting. One can't become an expert in every area, or sift through the data in all fields that are interesting to you or relevant to one's life. There isn't a real option to ignore those areas either.

Take, for instance, economics. My knowledge is very limited: a few books, a class or two, and reading some blogs from time to time. If I'm honest about it, I have to admit that I will never become an expert in it either: it is highly improbable I will ever have time or motivation to study the area in great depth. And yet I do have an opinion on economics. The current economic policies will have a profound effect on my future life; I have to try and guess what the effects of those policies are, at least in terms of trying to avoid catastrophic outcomes. And I have to choose political candidates, who are pushing economic reforms based (as far as I can see) on understanding of economics even shallower than mine.

Now, it is possible, even likely, that I'm just indulging an illusion. Even professional economists can't really predict future effects of current policies in much detail; I probably shouldn't even be trying. But then, my choices for setting up my economic future become almost a toss of a coin, or have to be based on blind faith into whatever economic adviser I end up with (and how do I choose one in the first place? toss of the coin again?). I am more-or-less forced to believe that my limited knowledge has some value, even if that value is very low.

Fine, let's say this is ok - have an opinion, if you must. The point is, don't opine - if you really understand how limited your knowledge is, don't go out there talking about what you think.

What happens if I just stay quiet? In that case, I will be the only one who has access to my own opinion, vastly increasing the power of my confirmation bias. Sure, I can try to intentionally read opinions of people I disagree with, but that is unlikely to happen: I will rarely be able to summon motivation to read things I believe to be simply wrong. If I do manage to make myself read, I will likely skim and skip, and end up reinforcing my opinion by missing the entire point. Even worse, I don't know what I'm looking for. If there is some bit of economic information that is very important for some aspect of my economic thinking, I probably won't ever find it, or won't realize what it is if I stumble upon it. My understanding of the structure of economics just isn't good enough.

If I do opine, if I risk climbing Mt. Stupid, my opinions will be challenged. This will motivate me to do research and to check both my and my opponent's data, forcing me to keep learning and to keep re-evaluating my position. Others, whether they agree or disagree with me, will come up with things I have never thought of. The opponents won't be writing general opinions (which I can think around, or dismiss as irrelevant due to some particular point or technicality not mentioned by their book or article), they will be trying to undermine my specific position with precisely aimed arguments. If I escape an argument by invoking some detail, they can adapt and expand their argument to block off the escape route. Debate can thus be a cognitive tool that motivates learning and promotes growth.

If the above reasoning holds, it follows that Mt. Stupid should not always be avoided. If I remember the limits of my knowledge, if I try to resist my biases as much as that is possible, it can provide a way for growth in areas that would otherwise remain static.

Thoughts?