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gjm comments on [POLL] Wisdom of the Crowd experiment - Less Wrong
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Comments (18)
(I took the poll.)
It might also be interesting to try a variant of the "closer to A or B?" question in which you vary A and B. (It could even be done adaptively. Start with A and B far apart. Once you get some consensus, replace the less popular answer with the weighted average. Repeat. Or something like that.)
Good suggestion. Your particular process would have difficulties - eg: the over-estimate answer being very popular could easily (and would with the current results) make the weighted average above the actual value so replacing the lower with the weighted average would make both answers too high.