After reading the comments, I realized that I misunderstood the even/odd time question. I thought we were supposed to guess it, and there was some way to check which was right. I guess it's still random enough. I tend not to read instructions that thoroughly.
That's how I interpreted it too at first, but I decided that was too implausible so I re-read it before answering.
Many of you will be familiar with the "Wisdom of the Crowd" - a phenomenon where the average result of a large poll of people's estimates tends to be very accurate, even when most people make poor estimates. I've written a short poll to test a small variant of this setup which I would like to test.
Please fill out this short poll.
Specifically, I want to see how the weighted average of the results performs when the question is posed as "is the value in question closer to A or B?" This change is inspired by your usual two-party election where people choose between two extreme values, when many voters have opinions in the middle of the two.
Thank you for helping!
I'm a little worried about anchoring in this survey. Suggestions for how to improve it would be appreciated.