I interpreted “closer to A or to B” literally, i.e. “earlier or later than (A + B)/2”. Since, under this assumption, the question means exactly the same thing if you use (say) (A + 10) and (B - 10) instead, if other people thought the same way as me then the weighted average is meaningless, since it also depends on the very choice of A and B rather than just on their average (unless exactly half choose A and half choose B).
This was the intended interpretation and I was considering wording the questions this way. However, the way I used is worded more similarly to what I am trying to investigate.
Many of you will be familiar with the "Wisdom of the Crowd" - a phenomenon where the average result of a large poll of people's estimates tends to be very accurate, even when most people make poor estimates. I've written a short poll to test a small variant of this setup which I would like to test.
Please fill out this short poll.
Specifically, I want to see how the weighted average of the results performs when the question is posed as "is the value in question closer to A or B?" This change is inspired by your usual two-party election where people choose between two extreme values, when many voters have opinions in the middle of the two.
Thank you for helping!
I'm a little worried about anchoring in this survey. Suggestions for how to improve it would be appreciated.