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army1987 comments on [POLL] Wisdom of the Crowd experiment - Less Wrong
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Comments (18)
I interpreted “closer to A or to B” literally, i.e. “earlier or later than (A + B)/2”. Since, under this assumption, the question means exactly the same thing if you use (say) (A + 10) and (B - 10) instead, if other people thought the same way as me then the weighted average is meaningless, since it also depends on the very choice of A and B rather than just on their average (unless exactly half choose A and half choose B).
This was the intended interpretation and I was considering wording the questions this way. However, the way I used is worded more similarly to what I am trying to investigate.
Given that (A+B)/2 is the decision point, maybe tgb shouldn't be worried about anchoring - it's just the nature of the beast. An anchoring effect should be expected.
Indeed. The way the question is asked appear to suggest that the correct answer is either somewhere near A or somewhere near B, so if A and B were 1828 and 2012, or 1917 and 1918, the anchoring effects would be different.
Thanks for pointing this out - this was not the intended reading.