Could you explain how you are calculating (or intuiting?) the relevant probabilities?
If P(I'm a foobar) > P(A foobar can be conscious), then there are worlds where you are not conscious (and also a foobar). Assuming you are conscious, "I'm a foobar" becomes "A foobar can be conscious, and this specific thing is a conscious foobar", so P(I'm a foobar) <= P(A foobar can be conscious) and the equality holds only if you believe that if foobars can be conscious then you have to be one - that it is completely impossible to be some other kind of thing that is also conscious.
The important bit being that all this depends v...
“Personal Identity and Uploading”, Mark Walker is the next JET paper. Abstract:
1 Uploading: prospects and perils
2 The equivalency thesis
The thesis disturbed me the first time I saw it; it seemed to me that it either begged the basic philosophical question at point or it did not do any work. So I read on to see how it was used. It seems to be the latter case: the thesis is barely used and not really germane to the examples that criticize somaticism and argue for a type-token kind of personal identity. This is good because it seems like used in any kind of strong sense, it’s easy to criticize the thesis.
(Implicitly, it seems to scope over all individuals - that we could rewrite it as, ‘for all individuals that survive any carbon->carbon transition, there is a carbon->silicon transition they survive’. But this seems false: a book is made out of carbon, survives minute to minute or copy to copy, and can be satisfactorily uploaded, but can a squishy human brain? Can a bowl of water? If I take a stick of carbon and light it on fire, how do I upload the burning stick? What does an uploaded diamond do? One might say the physics of the constituent atoms can be uploaded and this is a correct emulation with any necessary properties like emergence, but then we’re back to the question-begging.)
3 Personal identity: psychological and somatic accounts
3.1 Against somaticism: the big stroke
3.2 Against somaticism: retrospective replicas
This example reminds me strongly of Nick Bostrom’s reversal test for the status quo bias; an example would be a drug that increases IQ 10 points may be feared and rejected, but would it be accepted if scientists discovered new pollution will reduce IQ 10 points and that drug would compensate? I like his reversal test, and I like this example as well.
3.3 Against somaticism: practical ethics
4 No branching
(For those not familiar with the literature, ‘numerical’ here is being used in a sense of complete identity - there being complete logical equivalence. So for example, everyone reading this is numerically identical with themselves, and numerically not identical with the pope.)
5 Types and tokens
Walker invokes the type-token distinction:
for 2 false anti-replication personal-identity arguments:
The reader can guess what comes next: he’ll make the move of saying personal identity is the ‘type’ and any upload or copy is the ‘token’. We accept that while the original Hamlet is valuable in many respects, Hamlet survives the destruction of the original if an appropriately faithful copy is made.
6 The type/token solution to personal identity
Points in favor of the type-token:
7 Should I upload?
(This hearkens back to a previous JET paper I covered, “Ray Kurzweil and Uploading: Just Say No!”, Nick Agar. Agar is not cited for this part of the paper.)
8 Further reading
There doesn’t seem to be any discussion of this paper online. My own views on personal identity tend to the psychological pattern, which does not seem to be very different from a type-token theory of personal identity, if there is any meaningful difference at all, so this was a less challenging paper to read than the others, the equivalency thesis aside. The examples may be worth remembering.