I feel like I am really missing something here. I don't see how the modal argument is supposed to work. I have lots of evidence that I am conscious in this world. But how is that evidence supposed to help when I move to a different world -- one in which I may or may not be a foobar?
At a first pass, I just don't know how to parse the claims you are making. Are you saying, for example, that P(I am a foobar in this world) < P(A foobar is conscious in this world), or P(I am a foobar in some possible world) < P(A foobar is conscious in some possible world), or ... ?
At a second pass, I'm not sure how to evaluate the probability of modal claims.
At a third pass, I'm worried that your argument equivocates on the interpretation of probability in your two assumptions. The first assumption -- that P(I'm a foobar) > P(A foobar can be conscious) -- seems to use a modal relative frequency interpretation: where the probability of an event is the frequency of possible worlds in which the event occurs. The second assumption -- that P(I'm conscious) is nearly one -- seems to use an evidentialist or maybe personalist view of probability. But I don't think these two can be combined unless you have some principle by which evidence that I am conscious in this world is also evidence that I am conscious in nearly every possible world.
Could you try explaining in more detail?
“Personal Identity and Uploading”, Mark Walker is the next JET paper. Abstract:
1 Uploading: prospects and perils
2 The equivalency thesis
The thesis disturbed me the first time I saw it; it seemed to me that it either begged the basic philosophical question at point or it did not do any work. So I read on to see how it was used. It seems to be the latter case: the thesis is barely used and not really germane to the examples that criticize somaticism and argue for a type-token kind of personal identity. This is good because it seems like used in any kind of strong sense, it’s easy to criticize the thesis.
(Implicitly, it seems to scope over all individuals - that we could rewrite it as, ‘for all individuals that survive any carbon->carbon transition, there is a carbon->silicon transition they survive’. But this seems false: a book is made out of carbon, survives minute to minute or copy to copy, and can be satisfactorily uploaded, but can a squishy human brain? Can a bowl of water? If I take a stick of carbon and light it on fire, how do I upload the burning stick? What does an uploaded diamond do? One might say the physics of the constituent atoms can be uploaded and this is a correct emulation with any necessary properties like emergence, but then we’re back to the question-begging.)
3 Personal identity: psychological and somatic accounts
3.1 Against somaticism: the big stroke
3.2 Against somaticism: retrospective replicas
This example reminds me strongly of Nick Bostrom’s reversal test for the status quo bias; an example would be a drug that increases IQ 10 points may be feared and rejected, but would it be accepted if scientists discovered new pollution will reduce IQ 10 points and that drug would compensate? I like his reversal test, and I like this example as well.
3.3 Against somaticism: practical ethics
4 No branching
(For those not familiar with the literature, ‘numerical’ here is being used in a sense of complete identity - there being complete logical equivalence. So for example, everyone reading this is numerically identical with themselves, and numerically not identical with the pope.)
5 Types and tokens
Walker invokes the type-token distinction:
for 2 false anti-replication personal-identity arguments:
The reader can guess what comes next: he’ll make the move of saying personal identity is the ‘type’ and any upload or copy is the ‘token’. We accept that while the original Hamlet is valuable in many respects, Hamlet survives the destruction of the original if an appropriately faithful copy is made.
6 The type/token solution to personal identity
Points in favor of the type-token:
7 Should I upload?
(This hearkens back to a previous JET paper I covered, “Ray Kurzweil and Uploading: Just Say No!”, Nick Agar. Agar is not cited for this part of the paper.)
8 Further reading
There doesn’t seem to be any discussion of this paper online. My own views on personal identity tend to the psychological pattern, which does not seem to be very different from a type-token theory of personal identity, if there is any meaningful difference at all, so this was a less challenging paper to read than the others, the equivalency thesis aside. The examples may be worth remembering.