adamisom comments on Can the Chain Still Hold You? - Less Wrong

108 Post author: lukeprog 13 January 2012 01:28AM

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Comment author: adamisom 13 January 2012 01:33:13AM *  2 points [-]

If there are a few weaknesses in the article, I'm not sure this is one of them.

The field of cognitive biases have only been around 40 years; free access to most scientific knowledge has been greatly enhanced by Google Scholars and since it's otherwise fettered, that part's not unreasonable; even the Bayesian interpretation of probability theory has only been accepted for... well, I'm not sure, but I think only since World War II; and perhaps most restricting of all, the Web enables large communities that probably couldn't otherwise exist and is pretty new.

These facts in conjunction make his statement reasonable.

Comment author: ksvanhorn 13 January 2012 07:10:28AM *  10 points [-]

even the Bayesian interpretation of probability theory has only been accepted for... well, I'm not sure, but I think only since World War II

Try half a century later. Until very recently -- about twenty years ago -- the Bayesian view of probability was very much a minority view, and it has only really picked up steam in the last 10 years. Several things happened around 20 years ago:

  • Faster and cheaper computers became available. Bayesian methods tend to be computationally intensive, and this limited their use.

  • Rule-based expert systems fizzled out and began to be replaced by Bayesian networks after practical algorithms for inference with BNs were developed.

  • Awareness of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods (which can be used to sample from a Bayesian posterior distribution) spread to the statistics community, and the free BUGS software made it easy for non-experts to create and evaluate new Bayesian models.

These developments made it practical to apply Bayesian methods... and people started finding out how well they could work.