gwern comments on Mandatory Secret Identities - Less Wrong
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Huh? There is no way that knowledge of astronomy could possibly have told him about the olive crop. It seems more likely that his useful knowledge was of economics and business, but that he made up a story about astronomy to impress his peers.
This is a good example of what I meant over in the evolutionary psychology thread; coming up with evolutionary psychology explanations is a good practice to avoiding succumbing to 'arguments from incredulity', as I like to call this sort of comment.
"Oh, I couldn't think of how astronomy could possibly be useful in weather or crop forecasting, so I'll just assume the stories about Thales are a lie."
I'll leave this here for you.
" Forecasting Andean rainfall and crop yield from the influence of El Niño on Pleiades visibility", Nature 403, 68-71 (6 January 2000):