I'd give at least 50% odds that the fic finishes before the start of Harry's second year, and more than 90% that it finishes before the end of his second year.
I'd give at least 50% odds that Harry leaves school and does something else before the end of his second year, but that this is not the end of the fic.
Good possibility to raise, but 50% seems way too high to me.
(From Zvi Mowshowitz, leader of the New York group, and based on his experience)
Category 1: Discussions - The Base
A: Less Wrong topics. Usually recent posts. Often big hits.
B: Rationalist group planning and organization. Meta-topics. Dealing with group issues on occasion.
C: Spreading Rationality. Discussion of various approaches.
D: Contraband Topics. Discussion of things that I won't include here, but you can guess.
E: How To Do X, or how to do X well. Charity, meeting people, improving skills, relationships, etc.
Category 2: Presentations - Almost Always a Winner
F: Sequences. Andrew Rettek did these for public meetups, went over well I think.
G: Personal Projects: Variance, Geoff Anders's Psychology.
H: General Knowledge: CBT, Starting a Business, Basic Python.
I: Advanced Rationality: Attempted once, successful despite poor execution. Should be explored more.
Category 3: Game Nights
J: Proven Good Games: Illuminati, Poker, Citadels, 7 Wonders, Nomic.
K: Advanced Games: Much demand for general gaming, but not really that rationalist. Proven winners in this group: Vegas Showdown, Power Struggle, Baltimore & Ohio, Tichu, Through the Ages. I can keep going, many good choices. AVOID: Settlers of Catan (personal opinion) and Fluxx (cause you can do better, honestly).
U: Outside Games. Ultimate Frisbee is good.
Category 4: Other Celebrations
L: Karaoke
M: Baraccuda (bring something awesome you love)
N: Contraband Activities (enough said)
O: General Party In or Out / Pot Luck
Category 5: Special Guests
P: Famous Rationalists! If you get Eliezer or Robin or Vassar, you need no other topic. Probably a few others who get there on their own as well, or any generally famous guest.
Category 6: Self-Improvement
Q: Go out and do something to improve social skills.
R: Discuss or map out goals and plans. Set goals. Can be combined with other tasks.
S: Run experiments! For science!
T: Study Hall. Also folds into discussion of self-improvement topics.