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Caspian comments on The Savage theorem and the Ellsberg paradox - Less Wrong
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I wonder if people's responses will change if they can verify that the unknown proportion of green/blue was chosen using "fair" randomness. When I imagine a bastard experimenter in the loop, I lean toward Nash equilibrium considerations like "choosing red is less exploitable than choosing green" and "choosing green+blue is less exploitable than choosing red+blue".
The obvious type of fair randomness is a symmetrical distribution (equally likely to give N more blue than green, as to give N more green than blue), and this gives equal chances of blue or green to come out of the bag. If I knew it was a double blind experiment, so the experimenter doesn't know the contents of the bag, I would treat red, blue and green as each having known probability of one third. If the offers might depend on the experimenter's knowledge of the bag contents I would not.