Thomas comments on Q&A with Abram Demski on risks from AI - Less Wrong

22 Post author: XiXiDu 17 January 2012 09:43AM

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Comment author: Thomas 19 January 2012 08:36:23AM *  0 points [-]

Some approximate method could be as nearly as good and a lot cheaper to compute. I am at least 60% confident it exists.

Some highly optimized implementation might be acceptable. Only 30% confident that there is one such.

For the case, that there is something different and radically better, I give 25%.

And there is another optic. Say, that I have 10^20 CPU cycles every second. How much of a Levin search I can afford with this? Maybe it is enough. I give 80% chance for this one.

What if I have only 10^15 cps and still enough? I give 50% chance for this.

And maybe even 10^10 cps is quite all right. So that I could do it today, had been smarter. I give it 10%.

Of course, those are all wild guesses, but it's my best answer I can give.