lessdazed comments on The problem with too many rational memes - Less Wrong
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Probabilistic opinions?
Can you take a set of "unrelated" (the inapplicability of this term to math might make my suggestion worth very little) theorems known to be true or false and give your opinions about the chances they are true?
Also relevant are the costs of type I and type II errors in your paper...and your lives, as these may may have significantly conditioned your reactions to uncertainty.