HonoreDB comments on Histocracy: Open, Effective Group Decision-Making With Weighted Voting - Less Wrong

14 Post author: HonoreDB 17 January 2012 10:35PM

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Comment author: HonoreDB 18 January 2012 12:08:54AM 2 points [-]

If the organization is risk-averse, it doesn't want risk-neutral voters to gain influence. If it's risk-neutral, then it should incorporate opportunity costs when judging projects in hindsight. Furthermore, if in hindsight a rejected project still appears to have had a high positive EV, the org should register the rejection of the project as a mistake.

Comment author: Khoth 18 January 2012 12:36:27AM 9 points [-]

Suppose the organisation is risk-neutral, and Charlie abstains from the sub-95% chance projects rather than rejecting them (in a large organisation that makes many decisions you can't expect everyone to vote on everything). He also rejects the sub-5% projects.

By selectively only telling you what you already knew, Charlie builds up a reputation of being a good predictor, as opposed to David, who is far more often wrong but who is giving actual useful input.

Comment author: Vaniver 18 January 2012 01:39:25AM 2 points [-]

Furthermore, if in hindsight a rejected project still appears to have had a high positive EV, the org should register the rejection of the project as a mistake.

This misses the heart of that criticism: mistakes have different magnitudes.