Suppose the organisation is risk-neutral, and Charlie abstains from the sub-95% chance projects rather than rejecting them (in a large organisation that makes many decisions you can't expect everyone to vote on everything). He also rejects the sub-5% projects.

By selectively only telling you what you already knew, Charlie builds up a reputation of being a good predictor, as opposed to David, who is far more often wrong but who is giving actual useful input.