Johnicholas comments on Histocracy: Open, Effective Group Decision-Making With Weighted Voting - Less Wrong

14 Post author: HonoreDB 17 January 2012 10:35PM

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Comment author: Johnicholas 18 January 2012 07:32:15PM 2 points [-]

This post sounds to me like the author almost invented prediction markets or other well-known expert-fusion information-aggregation techniques, but then fell into "not invented here" syndrome, rationalizing and hypothesizing unproven advantages to the tiny differences between histocracy and the other similar ideas.

Possibly this points out a flaw in our allocation of prestige - in order to correctly incent adoption, we need to spread prestige from the first or most well-known advocate of an idea to the early adopters. See Derek Siver's idea of the First Follower: http://sivers.org/ff

Comment author: HonoreDB 18 January 2012 09:08:11PM 0 points [-]

Not my particular sin, since I came up with this before hearing of prediction markets.

Comment author: wedrifid 19 January 2012 01:46:46AM 0 points [-]

or other well-known expert-fusion information-aggregation techniques

Do you have some examples in mind?

Comment author: Johnicholas 19 January 2012 07:27:09PM 0 points [-]

I am not an expert, I just think it's a big field, with a lot of work done in it. There's an entire journal called "Information Fusion" for example (though I don't think highly of Dempster-Schafer stuff).

The best exemplar I can point to is Freund and Schapire's "Adaptive game playing using multiplicative weights": http://cseweb.ucsd.edu/~yfreund/papers/games_long.pdf

Another possibly-decent review is Blum and Mansour's chapter on regret minimization: www.cs.cmu.edu/~avrim/Papers/regret-chapter.pdf

Comment author: wedrifid 20 January 2012 03:38:00AM 0 points [-]

Thankyou, I was curious!