Given enough time and participation the market will win.

Given enough time and participation the market will tend towards something like the arithmetic mean of the estimates of all of its participants. Which is great, Wisdom of Crowds and all that, and I'd even call the whole concept beautiful given the way it practically runs itself, but it's not even a local optimum among aggregation algorithms--you'd get a few points better calibrated if you threw out the bets made by Idiot Jed, Glutton for Punishment.