The difficulty here is one of constructing markets and, critically, derivatives that make trading based on that sort of information feasible. This is the sort of thing that would require infrastructure in place to allow large amounts of complicated trading. If we were actually in a serious futarchy this kind of thing could and probably would be traded on, albeit indirectly in a huge sea of conditional probability payoff systems.

For us, given that we are not in a mature futarchy (and do not otherwise have access to an advanced and heavily traded prediction market), we are of course unable to use a market to directly answer that kind of question.