= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
lukeprog comments on The Singularity Institute's Arrogance Problem - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (307)
(I hope this doesn't come across as overly critical because I'd love to see this problem fixed. I'm not dissing rationality, just its current implementation. You have declared Crocker's Rules before, so I'm giving you an emotional impression of what your recent rationality propaganda articles look like to me, and I hope that doesn't come across as an attack, but something that can be improved upon.)
I think many of your claims of rationality powers (about yourself and other SIAI members) look really self-congratulatory and, well, lame. SIAI plainly doesn't appear all that awesome to me, except at explaining how some old philosophical problems have been solved somewhat recently.
You claim that SIAI people know insane amounts of science and update constantly, but you can't even get 1 out of 200 volunteers to spread some links?! Frankly, the only publicly visible person who strikes me as having some awesome powers is you, and from reading CSA, you seem to have had high productivity (in writing and summarizing) before you ever met LW.
Maybe there are all these awesome feats I just never get to see because I'm not at SIAI, but I've seen similar levels of confidence in your methods and weak results in the New Age circles I hung out in years ago. Your beliefs are much saner, but as long as you can't be more effective than them, I'll always have a problem taking you seriously.
In short, as you yourself noted, you lack a Tim Ferriss. Even for technical skills, there isn't much I can point at and say, "holy shit, this is amazing and original, I wanna learn how to do that, have all my monies!".
(This has little to do with the soundness of SIAI's claims about Intelligence Explosion etc., though, but it does decrease my confidence that conclusions reached through your epistemic rationality are to be trusted if the present results seem so lacking.)
I appreciate the tone and content of your comment. Responding to a few specific points...
There are many things we aren't (yet) good at. There are too many things about which to check the science and test things and update. In fact, our ability to collaborate successfully with volunteers on things has greatly improved in the last month, in part because we implemented some advice from the GWWC gang, who are very good at collaborating with volunteers.
Eliezer strikes me as an easy candidate for having awesome powers. CFAI, while confusingly written, was way ahead of its time, and what Eliezer figured out in the early 2000s is slowly becoming a mainstream position accepted by, e.g., Google's AGI team. The Sequences are simply awesome. And he did manage to write the most popular Harry Potter fanfic of all time.
Finally, I suspect many people's doubts about SIAI's horsepower could be best addressed by arranging a single 2-hour conversation between them and Carl Shulman. But you'd have to visit the Bay Area, and we can't afford to have him do nothing but conversations, anyway. If you want a taste, you can read his comment history, which consists of him writing the exactly correct thing to say in almost every comment he's made for the past several years.
Aaaaaaaaaand now Carl will slap me for setting expectations too high. But I don't think I'm exaggerating that much. Maybe I'll get by with another winky-face.
;)
I wasn't aware of Google's AGI team accepting CFAI. Is there a link of organizations that consider the Friendly AI issue important?
I wasn't even aware of "Google's AGI team" . .
Update: please see here.
I don't think you're taking enough of an outside view. Here's how these accomplishments look to "regular" people:
You wrote something 11 years ago, which you now consider defunct and still is not a mainstream view in any field.
You wrote series of esoteric blog posts that some people like.
You re-wrote the story of Harry Potter. How is this relevant to saving the world, again?
You have a guy who is pretty smart. Ok...
The point I'm trying to make is, muflax's diagnosis of "lame" isn't far off the mark. There's nothing here with the ability to wow someone who hasn't heard of SIAI before, or to encourage people to not be put off by arguments like the one Eliezer makes in the Q&A.
It's actually been incredibly useful to establishing the credibility of every x-risk argument that I've had with people my age.
Again, take the outside outside view. The kind of conversation you described only happens with people who have read HPMoR--just telling people about the fic isn't really impressive. (Especially if we are talking about the 90+% of the population who know nothing about fanfiction.) Ditto for the Sequences, they're only impressive after the fact. Compare this to publishing a number of papers in a mainstream journal, which is a huge status boost even to people who have never actually read the papers.
I don't think that that kind of status converts nearly as well as establishing a niche of people who start adopting your values, and then talking to them.
Perhaps not, but Luke was using HPMoR as an example of an accomplishment that would help negate accusations of arrogance, and for the majority of "regular" people, hearing that SIAI published journal articles does that better than hearing that they published Harry Potter fanfiction.
The majority of "regular" people don't know what journals are; apart from the Wall Street Journal and the New England Journal of Medicine, they mostly haven't heard of any. If asked about journal articles, many would say, "you mean like a blog?" (if younger) or think you were talking about a diary or a newspaper (if older).
They have, however, heard of Harry Potter. ;-)
You know what would be awesome, it's if Eliezer wrote original Harry Potter to obtain funding for the SI.
Seriously, there is a plenty of people whom I would not pay to work on AI, who accomplished far more than anyone at SI, in the more relevant fields.