Comment on The Singularity Institute's Arrogance Problem

Fri, 27 Jul 2012 16:16:36 GMT

This leaves one wondering how the hell would one be this concerned about the AI risk but not study math properly? How the hell can one go on Bayesian this and Bayesian that but not study? How can one trust one's intuitions about how much computational power is needed for AGI, and not want to improve those intuitions?

I've speculated elsewhere that he would likely be unable to implement general Bayesian belief propagation graph or even know what is involved (its NP complete problem in general and the accuracy of solution is up to heuristics. Yes, heuristics. Biased ones, too). That's very bad when it comes to understanding rationality, as you will start going on with maxims like "update all your beliefs" etc, which look outright stupid to e.g. me (I assure you I can implement Bayesian belief propagation graph), and triggers my 'its another annoying person that talks about things he has no clue about' reflex.

Talking about Bayesian this and Bayesian that, one should better know mathematics very well. Because in practice all those equations get awfully hairy on things like graphs in general (not just trees). If you don't know relevant math very well and you call yourself Bayesian, you are professing a belief in belief. If you do not make a claim of extreme mathematical skills and knowledge, and you go on Bayesian this and that, other people will have to assume extreme mathematical skills and knowledge out of politeness.

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