I am aware of the Gettier Problem. I just do not see the phrase, "the ability to constrain one's expectations" as being a proper conceptual analysis of "knowledge." If it were a conceptual analysis of "knowledge", it probably would be vulnerable to Gettieriziation. I love Bayesian epistemology. However, most Bayesian accounts which I have encountered either do away with knowledge-terms or redefine them in such a way that it entirely fails to match the folk-term "knowledge". Attempting to define "knowledge" is probably attempting to solve the wrong problem. This is a significant weakness of traditional epistemology.
So perhaps Eliezer didn't create original solutions to many of the problems I credited him with solving. But he certainly created them on his own. Like Hooke and calculus, really.
I am not entirely familiar with Eliezer's history. However, he is clearly influenced by Hofstadter, Dennet, and Jaynes. From just the first two, one could probably assemble a working account which is, weaker than, but has surface resemblances to, Eliezer's espoused beliefs.
Also, I have never heard of Hooke independently inventing calculus. It sounds interesting however. Still, are you certain you are not thinking of Leibniz?
Still, are you certain you are not thinking of Leibniz?
ooops, fixed.
I'll respond to the rest of what you said later.
I intended Leveling Up in Rationality to communicate this:
But some people seem to have read it and heard this instead:
This failure (on my part) fits into a larger pattern of the Singularity Institute seeming too arrogant and (perhaps) being too arrogant. As one friend recently told me:
So, I have a few questions: