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MichaelHoward comments on Replaying History - Less Wrong
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Does the decision have to be based just on information available at the time, or is it taking into account what you know now about future repurcusions?
You can use information gleaned from the present that applies to the past's future in general, but you can't assume the past's future will be the present. (Assume you brought a butterfly, and/or quantum randomness is redrawn.)