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taw comments on How I Ended Up Non-Ambitious - Less Wrong
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I'd been assuming that more complex popular art was a result of the Flynn effect, not a cause of it. Is there any way to tell?
What would be causing Flynn effect then? They make some arguments from timing etc., I recommend reading the book and taking your own conclusions as to how convincing they seem to you.
I'm not sure I'm going to get around to the book-- I just took a look at what was conveniently online.
This interview has a moment at about 19:20 where Johnson implies that he doesn't know the cause. He does seem to think that simulation games are much important (whether as cause or indicator) than movies or tv.
The beginning of the book about his playing complex chart and dice baseball simulation as a kid, and then much later realizing that he wasn't all that unusual, suggests that something else sparked an increase in the number of young people interested in complex simulation.
Other possibilities for the Flynn Effect: better nutrition and less lead, but I don't have a strong opinion there. Just for the hell of it, I'll allow for the possibility that there's a food additive which is making a difference.
There's plenty of possible causes for Flynn Effect, but since we have very crappy data about worldwide historical IQs it's pretty much impossible to pick one for sure.
Many obvious candidates are rejected by the fact that Flynn Effect is global and affects both rich and poor countries. That's about how far we can go reliably.
It wouldn't surprise me too much if physical effects started the Flynn effect, but once intelligence went up somewhat, the culture changed because thinking became more fun, so that there's a positive feedback.
That's one idea. The difficulty with physical effects is lack of any obvious physical effect which could plausibly affect both rich countries in mid-20th century (long past adequate nutrition phase and at slow beginnings of obesity epidemic) and poor countries in mid-20th century (still with regular starvation, and up to this day without adequate micronutrient supply in diets) at similar rates.
But then "similar rates" may very well be due to our evidence being so bad, perhaps these rates were very different, we just don't know it.