I assign very low probability to psi for several reasons. The first is evolution. If psi is an evolved feature of human brains, then it should be universal in humans and provide fitness advantages, but I've seen no evidence of these fitness advantages.
The second is that it is convenient. Humans like fantasizing about having superpowers. That is by far a simpler explanation for widespread belief and academic study.
The third is the economic argument, as explained by Randall Munroe here.
The fourth you've already mentioned; psi is an almost textbook example of the mind-projection fallacy.
None of these are knock-down arguments, but together they convince me that psi is not worth looking into unless something changes (a big result published in a mainstream journal that replicates, e.g.).
A big result was very recently published in a mainstream journal and has been replicated. Now what?
ETA: See Carl's correction. I can't immediately find the alleged replications and there have been a few failed replications.
[Post redacted 'cuz I unfairly and carelessly misrepresented someone's views (Eliezer's). The messages of this post was: disbelief that aliens visit Earth in spaceships is a bad reason not to look into ufology. My apologies for this ugly post.]